Headlines:
- The constant push for diplomatic resolution continues to cap the upside in oil prices
- Japanese yen slowly erases intervention-driven gains as macro backdrop remains negative
- How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
- What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
- What are the analyst calls ahead of the US non-farm payrolls later today?
- Fed policymaker Miran: I think it is appropriate to cut interest rates
- German trade surplus narrows considerably in March on higher imports
- German industrial output slumps in March amid production decline in energy generation
- UK house prices edged down slightly in April but remains broadly stable overall
Markets:
- WTI crude up 0.2% to $95.02
- European stocks down, DAX lower by 1%
- S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, Nasdaq futures up 0.6%
- US dollar slightly lower across the board
- US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.37%
- Gold up 0.7% to $4,718
- Bitcoin up 0.5% to $80,261
It was a calmer session as markets continue to wait on fresh leads from the US-Iran conflict. It remains to be seen if there will be any official confirmation of a framework deal before the weekend but traders and investors are keeping the faith.
After some shakiness yesterday, US futures are pointing higher again with tech shares leading the charge. Meanwhile, the US dollar is lower across the board as risk flows keep more positive on the session.
Oil prices are little changed with WTI crude just holding minor gains near the $95 mark. We continue to wait on US-Iran headlines but in the meantime, the broader market focus will shift towards the US jobs report later today.
That's keeping stocks more optimistic with S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, even if European stocks are lower on the day. Elsewhere, the dollar also nudged lower on the session with EUR/USD up 0.3% to 1.1760 levels and GBP/USD up 0.4% to be back above the 1.3600 mark.
USD/JPY remains more muted around 156.70-80 as Japan stayed away from intervening, with the pair not wanting to cross the 157.00 boundary to test Tokyo's appetite.
In other markets, bond yields are down slightly but are still keeping relatively underpinned for the most part. 10-year Treasury yields are down 2 bps to 4.37% while 30-year yields in the US are down 1.6 bps but keeping at around 4.95% on the day.
Precious metals are seeing solid bids though amid the better mood, with gold up 0.7% to $4,718 and silver up 2.9% to $80.74 currently.
US-Iran headlines will be the key driver before the weekend break but we'll make a pitstop in looking to the US jobs report first in the coming hour.
