Forex news for New York trading on October 4, 2017
- US stocks up modestly and off highs but still record closes
- Fed's Yellen does not comment on economy or monetary policy
- US crude oil futures settle below $50
- BOE deputy governor Woods: Brexit transition deal for banks later then Christmas not a great idea
- More Burr: Can certifiably say no vote totals were affected as a result of Russia
- WTI crude oil falls back below $50
- Senate intelligence committee chair Burr (R): Russia probe has expanded slightly
- Fed's Kashkari is not being considered as next Fed chair - report
- There are 3 "Bs" that matter for GBP at present - Credit Agricole
- New hurricane could hit the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
- Rex Tillerson: "We're just getting started"
- EIA weekly US oil inventories -6023K vs -500K expected
- Rex Tillerson tried to quit as Secretary of State, called Trump "moron" - report
- 10 year yield back above 200 day MA and 50% retracement level
- ISM's Nieves: Respondents believe storm will boost demand
- Dollar moves higher after big ISM beat
- September ISM non-manufacturing index 59.8 vs 55.5 expected
- Markit final September US services PMI 55.3 vs 55.1 expected
- Toronto home sales down 35% year-over-year in September
- Trump didn't mean that thing he said about wiping out Puerto Rico's debt
- Catalonia will declare independence Monday - report
- ADP September US employment 135K vs 135K expected
- The JPY is the strongest as NA trader enter for the day. The USD is the weakest.
In other market, a snapshot at the end of the day shows:
- Spot gold up $3.17 to 1274.63. The high extended to 1282.36. The low reached 1270.62.
- WTI crude oil traded lower today despite a big drawdown of inventories. The front contract is trading below the $50 level with the 200 day MA approaching at $49.55. The contract is trading at $49.89 currently. The low today reached $49.76. The high extended to $50.67
- US yields are marginally higher but well off the highs for the day. The 2 year is at 1.4711%, unchanged. It traded as high as 1.4831%. The 5 year is 1.9195%, up 0.3 bp after moving up to 1.9377%. The 10 year is 2.3265%, up 0.4 bp with a high at 2.3462%. The 30 year is 2.8696%, up 0.7 bp. The high extended to 2.8928%. The 10 year is closing near the 200 day MA which is currently at 2.321%. That is more bullish but the inability to run, is a bit of a worry.
- US stocks are ending the day with modest gains, but also record gains . S&P is up 3.16 points or 0.12%. The Nasdaq is up 2.91 point or 0.04%. The Dow is up 20 points or 0.09%.
The market, once again, traded quietly in the NY session as it continues to wait for the US employment data at the end of the week. The ranges of the major currency pairs and cross currency pairs were well below their 22 day averages - a sign of apprehension or uncertainty regarding the next move. That is not surprising given the key report on Friday (see chart of the ranges vs the 22 day averages below).
As a reminder, the expectations is for only 80K jobs, but the jobs data will be influenced by the hurricanes. So it will be hard to interpret. The Unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 6.2%. Canada will also release employment data with their net change in employment expected at 12.0K.
Today the ADP data came out "right on the screws". The estimate was for 135K and the number came in at 135K (economists won the forecast lottery with that release at least). Unfortunately, it is the surprises that help move the market and that report did little for the narrow trading ranges.
Later there was a surprise when the ISM non-manufacturing data came out and showed a sharp increase to 59.8 from 55.5. That was the highest reading 12 years. Confidence about a rebound from the hurricane helped the index. The USDJPY pushed above it's 100 hour MA 112.70. The high extended to 112.93. The 112.815-93 area was a swing area from June/July. Holding discouraged the buyers and the price rotated back lower. No break.
Helping stall the rally after the strong data was comments that Rex Tillerson would make a statement from the WH. Earlier NBC reported that Tillerson tried to resign in July - calling Trump a moron according to reports. The news of an announcement may have slowed the dollars rise. It certainly did not help. The dollar higher party was over.
The snapshot at the end of the day shows that the AUD was the strongest, while the CHF is the weakest. The USD was lower against all the major pairs with the exception of the CHF (+0.11%). Overall, the changes from the 5 PM ET close yesterday were modest.
Some technicals into the new day:
- The AUDUSD trades above the 100 hour MA below at 0.7835 but below the 200 hour MA above at 0.7866. A break should solicit momentum buying or selling (CLICK HERE).
- The GBPUSD has been trading in a 71 pip trading range for 2 days now. The high ceiling has highs between 1.3287-91. The low floor has support at 1.3221-24. Look for a break and run (CLICK HERE)
- The USDJPY broke below the 200 hour MA and failed on the break. It remains a level to get below and stay below if the pair is going down (at 112.503). I continue to call the 112.815-93 as a key level above. Get above is more bullish (see post explaining it all HERE).
- The EURUSD spent most of the NY session below the 100 hour MA, but just barely. That MA comes in at 1.17643 and the price is going out at 1.1762 for the day. A move above will have the 200 hour MA at 1.1792 (and moving lower) to contend with as a level to get and stay above. On he downside, the 1.1709-20 remains an area to get and stay below if the selling is to intensify.
That'll do it for the day. Good fortune with your trading. Eamonn had to run overtime yesterday as Mike had technical problems. Be sure to treat Eamonn extra special today. He is a great at all he does, and keeps you all up to snuff with all that is going on.
