Forex news for NY trading on May 3, 2018
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- AUDUSD corrects higher into RBAs Statement on Monetary Policy. What levels are in play through the key event?
- S&P 500 salvages the day, finishes above 200-day moving average
- Non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers
- White House: Raise concerns with China about its latest militarization of S. China sea
- GBPUSD hits a downside limit and stalls. Waiting for US employment?
- Bitcoin up $500 and trades near session highs. Goldman news helping the bulls/buyers.
- WH economist: First day of talks with China "pretty positive"
- EURUSD corrects to a topside trend line. Up and down activity today.
- The Feds had a wiretap on Michael Cohen and Trump may have called
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow for 2Q comes in at 4.0% (down from 4.1% on May 1)
- USDJPY moves toward the lower extreme after the price extension over the last few days failed.
- The US jobs report and what most investors fear
- SNB's Jordan: Sovereign money plan would be unnecessary and dangerous
- European equities stumble to the finish line
- Argentina's central bank hikes rates again in another emergency move
- Commodity currencies beaten up as risk aversion hits hard
- US March final durable goods orders +2.6% vs +2.6% prelim
- US April ISM non-manufacturing index 56.8 vs 58.0 expected
- US April final Markit services PMI 54.6 vs 54.5 expected
- Mnuchin, Kudlow and Ross decline to comment after Beijing dinner
- Fed leaves rates unchanged, what's next
- Who will be the Bank of England Governor come June 2019?
- US Q1 prelim unit labor costs +2.7% vs +3.0% q/q annualized expected
- US weekly initial jobless claims 211K vs 225K expected
- March international Trade balance, -4.14b vs -2.25b expected
- US March trade deficit $49.0 billion vs $50.0 billion expected
- US April Challenger Job Cuts YoY -1.4% vs 39.4% prior
Markets:
- Gold up $7.39, up 0.57%
- WTI crude up 55-cents to $68.48
- S&P 500 down -5.94 points to 2629.73 and averts a close below the 200 day MA. The Dow reversed a 400 point decline to close near unchanged on the day.
- US 10-year yields down -2 bps 2.945%%
In the forex market today, the end of day snapshot is showing the NZD and JPY are the strongest, while the GBP and the USD are the weakest. The US employment report will be released tomorrow, and the USD seemed to take a breather from the bullish run it has been on. Nevertheless, the greenback remains near higher levels
The news today was a bit mixed.
- US trade deficit was not as large as expected, with exports up and imports down. China's deficit was less than last months $29B (at $25B) which is better than higher as the Trump delegation meets with China officials on trade. Still 25B is not something that Trump/Ross/Mnuchin/Kudlow are excited about. The US had a 8B trade deficit with Mexico but a small surplus with Canada.
- US initial jobless claims remain low (strong) at 211K. With last weeks 209K, that suggests the job market remains tight
- The ISM non Manufacturing index came in weaker than expected at 56.8 vs 58.8. The employment was also weaker at 53.6 vs 56.6 last month. Although still above the 50 level, it shows some slowing of jobs
- Factory orders ex trans were up a modest 0.3%, but Cap goods orders and shipments were lower.
A mixed bag for the data.
The EURUSD today recovered after finding support against a trend line at the end of the day yesterday at 1.19355. The 61.8% of the move up from the November 2017 low on the daily chart was also at the level. That is a key level going into the new trading day. The corrective move higher today, did stall right before the 200 day MA at 1.2011 (the high reached 1.20085). That will be key level in the new day too.
The GBPUSD stalled just ahead of the 200 day MA at 1.3531 (the low reached 1.3537). That was a key target and it held. The price had a modest rally of the low and is closing near unchanged levels at 1.3569. The GBP just inched out the USD as the weakest currency today
The AUDUSD is awaiting the Statement on Monetary Policy to be released at 0130 GMT. The pair moved away from the 50% midpoint of the trading range since January 2016 at 0.74808 and also above the swing lows from December 2017 at 0.7501. Both those levels are key through the SoMP. On the topside, the 200 hour MA is catching up to the price at 0.7550 currently, but the highs today stalled against a topside trend line before that level at 0.7538 currently.. Both those levels will be key targets to get through if the price is going higher. The pair is closing at 0.7530
The USDJPY on the wide trades below the 200 day MA above at 110.19 but above the 100 day MA below at 108.687. That is the wide support and resistance. The current price is at 109.18 at the close. The pair today had more of a bearish bias - falling bellow the 100 hour MA and 200 hour MAs on the hourly chart. The price remains below the 200 hour MA at 109.284. A move back above will be needed to turn the bias back higher. If not, the pair should make a run at the 100 day MA at 108.687.
It's Friday. The Asian session will have the SoMP out of Australia and Caixin Services PMI out of China. PMI service PMI out of some EU countries, EU Retail sales and Spain employment will be released in the European session. The big release will be the US employment report at 8:30 AM ET.
Good fortune with your trading.
