It is a running guide for growth
For good order, the Atlanta Fed released the latest GDPNow estimate for the 2Q earlier today. The new estimate comes in at 4.0% vs 4.1% as reported on May 1.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.0 percent on May 3, down from 4.1 percent on May 1. After yesterday's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nowcasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 3.3 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 8.1 percent respectively. The nowcasts inched back up to 3.1 percent and 8.7 percent after this morning's international trade release from the BEA and U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's manufacturing release from the Census Bureau.
The next estimate will be on May 9th.
The Atlanta Fed, in their report this week added:
"The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow-the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model."
