- Prior month 49.8
- Sentiment index 48.2 versus 49.5 estimate
- Current conditions 47.8 versus 52.0 estimate
- expectations index 48.5 versus 48.1 estimate
- 1-year inflation expectations 4.5% versus 4.7% last month.
- 5-year inflation expectations 3.4% versus 3.5% last month
The numbers are at multi-decade lows and reflective of the economic issues caused by the Iran/US war.
From Univ of Michigan Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022. While the expectations index inched up, current conditions fell back about 9%, owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases. Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March. About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.
Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month. The current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war, along with all 2024 readings and the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019-2020, they were consistently below 2.8%.
