After the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia february board meeting Minutes earlier today, views from some of the big banks in Australia.
in brief ...
ANZ:
- Say the RBA will cut rates again in March
- "given the Bank's historical tendency towards consecutive moves in the early part of a new cycle and its own research which suggests that the impact of one 25bp rate cut on the economy is negligible"
NAB:
- Put the odds of a March cut less than 50%
- Call the RBA to most likely cut in May
- RBA will want to assess the impact of the February cut, lower petrol prices and lower currency
Westpac:
- The minutes cast doubt about a follow-up move in March
- But Westpac are sticking to their call for a cut in March
- "It is our view that the Bank has considerable scope to ease further and the best policy is to maintain downward pressure on the AUD. The somewhat uncertain outlook for rates which is implied in these minutes might prove to be counter-productive in delivering the Bank it's likely $0.75 target. That may become apparent over the course of the next few weeks"
CBA:
- expect the RBA to cut ... in March most likely
- CBA say the rise in unemployment to 6.4% in the January data argues for another cut
- Go on to say that there are upcoming data (capex business investment and wages - which may impact on the inflation outlook) ... these may alter the timing to as far out as May
