Latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency 12 May 2016
- non-OPEC output falling 800k bpd in 2016 vs prev f/cast of 710k bpd as unplanned outtages start to bite
- global crude oil stocks to rise by just 200k bpd in H2 2016 vs 1.3mln bpd in H1
- further rally in oil prices to be tempered by brimming crude and product stocks, " until more levels of inventory are reached"
- Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela have seen crude output fall 450k bpd from a year ago
- Iran crude loadings rose 600k bpd in April to around 2m bpd, unclear how much drawn from Kharg Island onshore storage
- stock builds are beginning to slow in the OECD: in the first quarter they grew at their slowest rate since the last quarter of 2014
Oil prices perky again this morning with Brent and WTI just off session highs of $47.95 and $46.65 respectively. That's adding to downward pressure on USDCAD which has been down to look at 1.2830 support lines/bids.
Full IEA report here
