Forex news for NY trading on June 26th 2018.
- The US stocks end the session higher but back off into the close.
- Trump says he will ease demands for new restrictions on Chinese tech investments
- USDJPY stalls at 200 day MA. Back below 200 hour MA and 50%
- Fed's Bostic: Still sees one more hike this year
- Kaplan speaks to reporters: Reluctant to dismiss yield curves signal on recession
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $70.53 up $2.45
- Fed's Bostic: Auto tariffs would ripple to a bigger part of economy
- More on the US plan to halt Iran oil exports
- Fed's Kaplan: We don't have a lot of labor slack in this country
- Bostic: Fed trying to keep economy on stable path
- US sells 2-year notes at 2.538% vs 2.536% WI bid
- Canada preparing steel quotas and tariffs on China and other nations.
- European shares end the session with mixed results
- US pushing allies to cut oil imports from Iran to zero - State dept. official
- Dallas Fed service sector index of general business 22.4 vs 18.5 in May
- US June Conference Board consumer confidence 126.4 vs 128.0 expected
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing index for June 20 vs 15 expected
- Here's a big reason why the US dollar is always in demand
- US April Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +0.20% vs +0.40% expected
- May Philly Fed non-manufacturing index 39.1 vs 45.3 prior
- The JPY is the strongest while the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter
In other markets:
- S&P 500 rose 5.99 points or 0.22%. Nasdaq up 0.39%
- Gold down -$7 to $1258.68
- US yields are little changed: 2 year down -0.4 bps at 2.5287%. 10 year down -0.3 bps to 2.876%
- WTI crude surged by $2.48 or 3.63% on the back of the US call for allies to import 0 from Iran by November 4.
If Monday was a trade worry day, I would characterize today as a day where there was not as much of a concern for traders.
Peter Navarro's appearance on CNBC late yesterday to say no investment restrictions against China were forthcoming, had some follow through reaction today.
That helped to support stocks a bit. The S&P (and other major indices) did end higher on the day. The S&P index moved up to a high of 2732.91, up about 16 points, but by the close the index was up only about 6 points. That is a disappointment and will continue to keep traders cautious.
The rally in the stocks helped to push the USDJPY higher. Honestly though, the technicals (and perhaps World Cup liquidity) may have been a contributor to it's gains. First, the pair did bottom near the two lows from yesterday at 109.36 (in the Asian session). Later in the NY morning hours, the price moved above the 100 hour MA and trend line at 109.93. That propelled the price up to the 200 day MA at 110.20 where sellers leaned (on Friday they did the same thing - see post here). That was a pretty good run for a fairly uneventful day (or so I thought). The price is closing back down near the 110.00 level. In the new day, the 200 day MA at 110.20 will be eyed above. The 100 hour MA will be eyed below at 109.93.
Oil prices were another story today, although I cannot say it had an impact on the dollar or even the CAD.
There was a headline that Pres. Trump wants allies to stop all imports of oil from Iran by November 4th or possible face sanctions. That sent the price of oil surging (up over 3.6%) and trading back above the $70 for the first time in a month. Despite the higher price, the dollar moved higher as well. Even the USDCAD ignored the move. It traded above and below its 100 hour MA at 1.3300 area for the entire NY session. The pair is ending marginally higher (lower CAD). That is not supposed to be the case. The range for the session was also very narrow at only about 30 pips.
Below is a snapshot of the gainers and losers today. The changes were relatively narrow between the pairs but the USD is ending the day as the strongest while the NZD is the weakest.
