USD/JPY bounces off the 100-hour moving average only to run into another test of the 200-hour moving average currently
That's the story of USD/JPY since overnight trading as buyers and sellers continue to do battle in between the key hourly moving averages. Right now, buyers are the ones looking more poised amid the risk rebound earlier as price challenges the 200-hour MA (blue line).
However, I'd feel more confident of a run higher if buyers can get price back above the 76.4 retracment level above 106.20 as well. Otherwise, the ping pong price action looks set to continue towards the end of the week.
As it stands, the near-term bias remains undefined and the short-term trade will be to observe which side (buyers or sellers) regain near-term control from here.
The risk for the downside is a move back below the 100-hour MA (red line) as well as swing region resistance closer to 105.60-65. That should allow sellers to feel more comfortable in chasing a move lower.
However, a move on either side will be highly dependent on the risk mood. As such, the next key risk event to watch out for today will be the release of US GDP data. Even though this is the secondary reading, any notable revisions may see some market reaction depending on how that plays out. As such, keep an eye on that in trading later today.
