Price moves back above the 200 hour MA
The EURUSD opened the day between the 100/200 hour MAs after holding support at the 100 hour MA on Friday on the run higher in yields after the US jobs report and wandering toward the middle of the 100/200 hour MA range into the close for the week.
Today after the pair moved up to retest the higher 200 hour MA (green line) in the Asian session, the price rotated lower and traded back below the 100 hour MA. The sellers tried to push back lower with the pair trading below the MA for 4 consecutive hourly bars, but it also traded above the MA line on each of those bars. So sellers were increasingly frustrated. The 100 hour MA stalled the rally on Wednesday and initially on Thursday, before breaking higher. It held at the MA line on Friday. The sellers had their shot. They failed.
The price is now up retesting - and breaking - the 200 hour MA. The price did peek (and peak) above the 200 hour MA on Friday, but there have been no closes above the MA level. Can the buyers not push higher and get the close above the MA line? They are making the next technical play.
More probing will look to test the highs from Friday at 1.1786 and then the 38.2% of the move down from the March 22 high. That comes in at 1.17963. Getting above the high, and then the 38.2% is what is needed to give the buyers more confidence. Short of that, and the move is just a modest correction in what has been (at least in the intermediate term) a downward trend.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the lows from last week fell below the trend line connecting lows from earlier in the month of March. However, the pair did fall short of the 38.2% of the move up from the March 20 low (the longer term trend) at 1.1694. The low reached 1.17035 at the week's low.
If the 38.2% is important in the intermediate term, it is also important in the longer term chart. That inability to move below the 38.2% makes the longer term correction of the plain vanilla variety.
Does that put the buyers in the driver's seat?
The buyers ahead of the 38.2% on the daily, the failure of the break back below the 100 hour MA and move above the 200 hour MA are certainly in the favor of the buyers. The next step is the 38.2% on the hourly. Buyers more a little more control, but the verdict is still out. The game is not over. Get above the 38.2% on the hourly is the next key. Then the buyers can work on other upside targets to increase their control.
