Up and down day but back down toward lowest levels since September 2015
Stocks may be higher and gold lower and China/US trade hope may be on, but there is no love in the NZD today.
The pair moved lower earlier in the day, had a midday rally, but is back near the day's lows as the day draws closer to it's end.
Looking at the weekly chart above, the price is extending away from the 2016 low at 0.63465 and trades at the lowest level since September 2015. There is no love for the pair.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the run up of the earlier low at 0.63056, took the price above a topside trend line, but stalled near the 38.2% of the last leg down (from the August 23 high). That comes in at 0.6345. The high reached 0.63466 and turned around.
NOTE: that corrective high level today was equal to the swing low from 2016 on the weekly chart above. Resistance against that year's low held, increasing that levels importance going forward. As long as the price can remains below the 0.6346 level, the sellers are in control.
WIth the price making new lows and not going far, there is a chance for dip buyers to lean against the low now. We are trading at 0.6312 after dipping to a low of 0.63038. However, if the price does break to new lows (go below 0.6300), I would expect stops with the lower trend line at 0.6285 as the next downside target (see hourly chart below). That trend line is moving lower.
It will take a move back above the topside trend line on the hourly, and the 0.6346 level (38.2% and the 2016 low), to hurt the negative/beairsh bias for the pair.
The flows are more USD buying vs. the traditional "risk on" where pairs like the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD benefit.
