The GBPUSDs 200 hour MA is in play after break below fails
The GBPUSD tumbled on the surprise prorouge news from PM Johnson. The price fell below the:
- 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 1.22443)
- 38.2% of the move up from the August 12 low. That comes in at 1.2196
- 200 hour MA (green line currently at 1.21904)
- Swing highs from August 16, August 20 and August 21 at 1.21745-788 (yellow area)
- 50% retracement at 1.21614
The price did stall just ahead an old trend line (and 100 bar MA on 4-hour). That trend line was broken on August 20, but failed and reestablished the old line on August 22. That line come in at 1.2152. A lower 100 bar MA on the 4-hour comes in at 1.21472. The low reached 1.2154 just ahead of those levels. The price rebounded higher and currently trades at 1.2207.
What now technically?
Looking at the levels, the price rebound took the price back above the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.21904, and has been able to hold/close above over the last 4 trading hours. Buyers seem to be leaning so far against the level (the line is also close to the corrective low from August 23rd). Stay above and the dip buyers are still engaged. Move below will likely soften that engagement (look for buyers to sell).
So, a break below (and stay below) would tilt the bias more to the downside again with the 1.2174-78 area, the 50% at 1.21614 and the trend line and 100 bar MA on the 4-hour back in play as downside targets.
If support does hold, what would be the ultimate failure for the sellers on the turmoil would be a move back above the 100 hour MA at 1.22443.
Any closer clues of a cracking in the bearishness?
Drilling to the 5 minute chart, watch the 1.2220 level. That is the 50% midpoint of the trend move lower today(see chart below). It has been breached on the correction higher today, but only briefly on each move above. The falling 100 bar MA (blue line) at 1.22359 (and falling) is also a level that SHOULD NOT be breached if sellers are to remain in control.
So.
- Sellers more in control but work to do on the downside. Get below the 200 hour MA and stay below.
- Buyers need to get and stay above the 50% on the 5 minute and breach the falling 100 bar MA on the 5-minute and 100 hour MA to gather more control.
