Little reaction after the step forward in the Brexit talks
While the GBPUSD has moved higher after the news of some progress from the Brexit talks, the EURUSD has remained mired in a narrow trading range. The low to high trading range today is only 39 pips. That is much lower than the 70 pip average trading range of the last 22 trading days (about a month of trading).
Technically, the price is trading just below the 100 hour moving average at 1.21250. It would take a move above that level - and then the 1.2132 area (with momentum). That level was a swing low going back to Thursday and again Friday. The high today reached just above that level, but backed off.
Above those levels and the 1.2153-64 area would be targeted ahead of the Friday high at 1.2177. Recall from posts yesterday (and the day before etc), that area represents swing lows going back to January, March, and April in 2018. The price of the EURUSD moved above that area on Thursday and again on Friday, but could not sustain upside momentum (see daily chart below). Moving above that level (and staying above) would be an important technical break for the pair if the buyers are to keep the bullish train going (see daily chart below).
On the downside, the 1.2100 level, followed by the 38.2% retracement of the range from last week comes in at 1.20788. Yesterday, the price bounced near that level. If the correction lower cannot get below the 38.2% retracement, it is simply a plain vanilla correction of the most recent bull leg higher.
If the 38.2% is broken, traders will be looking toward the rising trend line on the hourly chart (near 1.2053) and then the rising 200 hour moving average/50% retracement near 1.20485. That area (around 1.2050) would also be key for both buyers and sellers to help determine the bias (if it is tested).
