March retail sales in Australia printed a strong +8.5% m/m (pre lockdown buying).
The data was posted yesterday:
You will note from that post that Q1 sales were not nearly as good, much of the gain coming from higher prices not volumes.
Nonetheless there are thoughts that the good March result might be enough to keep Q1 GDP from contracting (Q1 GDP data is due on June 3). But, retail only accounts for around a third of the total of 'consumption', the balance is made of car sales and services. Both of which will be weak. Combined with weakness in other sectors of the economy is likely to mean Q1 GDP will slip into negative - there is still a chance it won't but IMO a small negative is the most likely.
Q2 (we won't get GDP for this until September) will be much more substantially negative.
