I posted these already on the nonfarm payroll numbers coming up from the US at 1230GMT on Friday 6 July 2018
- Goldman Sachs preview of Friday's NFP report
- US President Trump has promised not to tweet about the NFP jobs report in advance
- US President Trump won't be leaking the NFP results - this preview will have to do
This preview now via Barclays:
We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 200k, in line with the year-to-date average monthly increase.
- Factors influencing our forecast include initial and continuing jobless claims, which continue to point to low rates of job separation, and other survey-based data on hiring.
We look for government payrolls to rise 10k and private payrolls to increase 190k. Recent protectionist moves by the administration likely pose some downside risk to our forecast, but we do not see such effects present in the main inputs as of now.
- We will watch for signs that heightened policy uncertainty is weighing on business investment or hiring.
Elsewhere in the report, we forecast another 0.1pp drop in the U3 unemployment rate, to 3.7%,
- and expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y.
- We look for average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.5.
Altogether, a report in line with our forecast would be consistent with further normalization of the monetary policy stance, and we maintain our call for two additional 25bp rate hikes this year.
