A preview of the non farm payroll report from the BLS for June
(Don't be waiting for the D rump to tweet the result like last month: US President Trump has promised not to tweet about the NFP jobs report in advance)
Nomura:
- We expect a steady 210k gain in June nonfarm payroll employment, consistent with the solid acceleration in activity during Q2, with a 205k gain from the private sector and 5k from the government.
- Labor market indicators including business surveys and initial jobless claims remain consistent with continued labor market strength.
- For average hourly earnings (AHE), we expect a trend-like 0.2% m-o-m increase as payback from an unusual increase in financial activity worker AHE offsets a positive calendar effect.
- Finally, with the unemployment rate at a very low 3.8% (3.75%) in May, we believe it will decline further in June to 3.7%. Continuing jobless claims have fallen sharply over the inter-survey period, consistent with a steady flow of workers from unemployment to employment.
Daiwa:
- Friday's employment report for June
- Another solid increase in non-farm payrolls seems assured
- most interest will centre on developments in the unemployment rate and especially wage growth
