Forex news for trading on March 7, 2017
- US major stock indices end the day lower
- Westpac says it's time to sell the euro
- US January consumer credit $8.794B vs $17.25B expected
- Forex technical analysis: AUDNZD is the biggest mover today
- WTI crude settles at $53.14 / bbl
- House of Lords votes to give parliament greater power on rejecting Brexit
- Snapchart: EURJPY range getting more confined
- US sells 3 year note at 1.63%. WI was at 1.624% before auction.
- Gold down again.
- How do you forget about a €50k loan?
- US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on CNBC. Regulations prevent rational business decisions
- Dollar inching lower...
- A quiet day for European stocks
- Elabe French election poll has Macron just behind Le Pen in the 1st
- More al-Falih: Green shoots of oil sector investment recovery in US.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow down to 1.3% from 1.8% in Q1
- USDCAD spikes higher on weaker Ivey PMI, but comes back down.
- There are no free rides for non-OPEC producers taking advantage of OPEC cuts
- February 2017 Canadian Ivey PMI 55.0 vs 58.5 exp SA
- Snapchart: NZDUSD falls to 0.6972 today. Key support being approached.
- Wikileaks releases details of CIA's global covert hacking program
- New Zealand dairy auction GDT price index -6.3% vs -3.2% prior
- Canada January international merchandise trade +$0.81B vs +$0.75B expected
- January 2017 US trade balance -48.5bn vs -48.5bn exp
- May wins one in the House of Lords
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
In other markets today:
- US major indices are lower with the S&P down -0.29%, the Nasdaq down -0.26%, and the Dow down -0.14%
- US yields were higher with the 2 year up 2 bps, the 5 -year up 2.6 bps and the 10 year up 1.2 bps
- Spot gold fell toward support at $1210-11. It was down $9.41 to $1215.87 near the end of the trading day.
- WTI crude remains contained in a less than $1.00 trading range. It is trading at $53.10, down -$0.10
Calling it like it is, the forex markets stumbled through ups and downs in narrow trading ranges. All the major currency pairs against the USD did not reach their 22-day average ranges (22 days is the proxy for a month of trading).
- The EURUSD did 44 pips from low to high (avg. 72 pips).
- The USDJPY 43 pips (avg. 98).
- The USDCAD 52 pips (avg. 82 pips).
- The GBPUSD did 83 pips but it was still short of the average of 96 pips.
Yuck. But we have to deal with it.
Today the dollar rose but only modestly, and despite trade data which is not helping US growth. That data showed that imports rose to the highest levels since 2014 led by oil imports at higher prices for oil, and the higher dollar is starting to keep exports contained.
What might reverse that?
Well, I guess lower reliance on foreign oil, and less manipulation of currencies. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross today said that the problem was not the dollar being too strong but the currencies of some other countries being too low. HMMMM. I am still scratching my head on that one.
Anyway, exports to China and Germany are down. Those countries have already been targeted by Pres. Trump. China releases there trade numbers in the new trading day. Maybe they should round some of the numbers in the favor of the US to avoid trade sanctions. As for Germany, they can just point to the weak sisters in the EU and the Fed's tightening ("It's not our fault the EURUSD has been knocking on the 1.0000 level?").
In other news today, the market is working through the repeal and replace plan for US healthcare. There is a lot to be flushed out still.
What about the details in your favorite currencies.
The EURUSD chopped around in a 44 pip trading range. That range was for the entire day. The NY trading range was 28 pips. That ain't a lot of opportunity. If there is a level to eye in the new day, watch 1.0559 on the downside. That is the 100 hour MA and the lows today found support buyers against that MA.
The USDJPY was just as bad for traders today. The NY range was 29 pips with a move up early, a move down midday, and a small correction in the US afternoon (20 pips). I still think 114.06 is a level that defines bullish above and bearish below. We are below (more bearish) but only by 8 pips at the close. Still we are below.
The GBPUSD fell below the 1.2197-1.2201 level (was low in December and again in early January). We are starting the new day near that level. Is the snapchart (see my video here)below what will control the trading bias in the new day. Well the channel has formed. I will/can say that the GBPUSD closed lower today. That was the 7th lower close in 8 trading days. The buyers need to show they can win. Win by taking the price above the topside trend line. Win by have an up day. A bigger win would be to get above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart bellow). Those are the some of the wins, the buyers have to get. It is that simple.
The USDCAD surged to highs for the day after weaker Ivey PMI data by stalled just ahead of the Friday hiighs at 1.3436. So now we have a double top at that level which will need to be broken if the pair is going higher. On the downside in the new trading day, the 100 hour MA is catching up to the price at 1.3389. The price of the USDCAD has not traded below that MA line since Feb 27th.
Looking ahead, the rest of the week will have:
- China trade tonight. That has the potential to move the AUD and the NZD. That will be interesting as the AUDUSD and the NZDUSD have been going different ways with the AUDNZD trending higher. Will they travel the same direction on a stronger or weaker trade number out of China tonight? PS the NZDUSD is testing support at 0.6951-66 (click here for the chart)
- UK Annual budget will be released tomorrow at 7:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. The ADP Non farm employment change will also be released tomorrow.
- On Thursday, the ECB will likely keep rates unchanged. Then Draghi will cause up and down volatility as the market makes it's way through the comments and headlines.
- On Friday, the US employment report will be released with employment gains expected around 185k-190K.
Below is the snapshot of the winners and loser today. It does not happen often but the AUD was the strongest today, while the NZD was the weakest.
