Forex news for NY trading on February 7, 2017
- Nasdaq closes at record highs.
- US consumer credit for December 14.2B vs 20B estimate
- US crude oil futures settle lower on the day
- How Warren Buffett became the world's greatest investor
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD at a key area
- ECB's Weidmann: There are numerous worrisome comments from the US
- The consensus is still for US dollar strength in 2017
- Senate confirms Betsy Devos as Education Secretary
- EIA boosts 2018 US oil production forecast, cuts demand estimate
- The euro has sound economic foundations says France's Villery
- Mark Feb 14th in your diaries
- We must end loose policy as soon as inflation allows says ECB's Weidmann
- Another day where the dollar can't hold a bid?
- What's the best way to choose a broker?
- The Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow estimate retraces early surge
- Did USDMXN correct enough?
- Fed's Kashkari: No signs of wage inflation yet
- January 2017 US IBD/TIPP economic optimism 56.4 vs 55.6 prior
- Ivey January Canada PMI 57.2 vs 60.8 prior
- December 2016 US JOLTS job openings 5.501m vs 5.568m exp
- FXCM will terminate 150 employees after leaving the US. Shares open down more than 50%
- BOE's Forbes: The UK economy is on the path to a rate hike
- Fonterra GlobalDairyTrade price index +1.3%
- Looks like Iran is working to comply with OPEC cuts
- Canada December international merchandise trade balance +$0.92B vs +$0.2B expected
- Canada Dec building permits -6.6% vs -3.5% m/m expected
- December 2016 US trade balance -44.3bn vs -45.0bn exp
In other markets:
- US stocks closed up marginally with the S&P up 0.02%. The Nasdaq closed at record highs (up 0.19%). The Dow was also up ).19%
- US debt yields are mixed: 2 year was up 1.6 bp. 5 year was unchanged. 10 year was down 1.6 BP
- Spot gold is down about $2 or -0.16.
It was a crazy day in the GBP today. That currency was the weakest coming into the NY session, and it is ending as the strongest of the majors at the end of the day. BOE's Kristen Forbes warned that the central bank may have to tighten sooner than expected (she is a hawk), but I cannot say that her comments ignited a huge rally. Instead, it seemed like a combination of support holding at the 50% of the move up from the January low at 1.23456 (the low stalled within 1 pip of that level at 1.23463), and a move back above a broken support level at 1.2411-17, that caused the sellers, to turn to buyers. The covering was on. The rally continued until the pair reached a cluster of resistance from 1.2519 to 1.2543 (100/200 hour MAs and swing levels - see post here). The high reached 1.2545 and it settle back lower (closed the day at 1.2505). With the down and up day, the which way we go is a mystery but the 100 day MA at 1.2455 is once again a support level on dips. The 1.2543 remains resistance above...
For the EURUSD, the 1.0700 to 1.0706 area was tested - and then finally broken - after finding support against the area on Friday (employment day) and again yesterday. The fall below the area took the price down to a swing low support at 1.0656 (lows from Jan 26 and Jan 27th). Support held and a rally began. What was support at 1.0700-06 became resistance, and that is where the market stalled (corrective high reached 1.07057 - just below the 1.0706 level). We are settling the day at 1.0682. In the new day, would I be redundant if I said the 1.0700-06 is upside resistance? Maybe, but it is. On the downside, the 1.0655-57 is support (swing lows from Jan 26, Jan 27 and today).
The USDJPY fell below the 111.98-112.06 level yesterday, and the selling continued to 111.58. The 111.98 represented the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the November election low. The swing low prices from last week stalled just above that level at 112.04 and 112.06. The problem, is that break did not last. The pair move back above the area in the early European session and that helped propel the price right up to the 100 hour MA. Sellers leaned against the level and the price started to come back down. Lower yields in US treasuries helped the slide as did some give-up of stock gains. The pair ended the day at 112.37- above support at the 111.98-112.06 and below the 100 hour MA at 112.51 (and coming down). Those levels will help dictate the next move for this pair in the new trading day (and perhaps going forward).
The AUSUSD had an up and down trading day. The NY session saw the pair stall the fall just above the 50% retracement of the move up from the Jan 27th low (at 0.7603 - the low reached 0.7605). The 200 hour MA was also not far away (it is currently at 0.7603 too). The rally took the price to the 100 hour MA where sellers emerged (risk defining level - currently at 0.7650). So the new trading day has the pair between those two MA extremes with the 200 hour MA providing support at 0.7603 and the 100 hour MA providing the resistance at 0.7650. Lean against the levels until there is a break with momentum.
Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the strongest and weakest today.
