Forex news for NY trading on November 6, 2018.
- NZ Q3 jobs report out now: Unemployment rate 3.9% (expected 4.4%)
- Private survey oil inventory data, larger than expected build in headline stocks
- US stocks close with gains. S&P and Dow close near highs.
- US dollar typically does poorly with a divided Congress
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $62.21
- Venezuelan gold sales will continue to be a headwind
- Document suggests Brexit deal will be announced Nov 19 - report
- What time are the US midterm election results?
- US treasury auctions 10 year notes at 3.209%
- Oil crumbles to seven-month low
- European shares end the session in the red
- What if you already knew the outcome of the US midterms?
- Italy's government calls confidence vote
- NZ GDT price auction sees prices down -2.0%
- JOLTS job openings for September 7009K vs 7085K expected
- German economic advisors: Expect growth of 1.6% this year
- Irish PM Varadkar: Want orderly Brexit
- Attention London FX and crypto traders
- Iraq says close to deal to help expand its oil output capacity
- Canada September building permits +0.4% vs +0.3% expected
- Iraq oil minister says supply shortfall from Iran oil sanctions cannot be gauged yet
- May's spokesman: May told cabinet a number of difficult issues remain
- The NZD is the strongest. The CAD is the weakest as the voting booths open in the US
Other markets
- Spot gold, $-4.60 or -0.3% at $1226.86
- WTI crude oil futures are trading down $1.36 or -2.16% at $61.74
In the US stock market today, the major indices had solid gains with the Dow and S&P closing near the highs for the day. The Nasdaq was also up with a solid 0.64% gain, but was more off the intraday highs. European shares did not fair as well with the major indices closing lower. The UK FTSE was the weakest.
IN the debt market in the US today, yields are ending the session higher despite a pretty good 10 year auction. JOLT job data was weaker than expectations, but the data still is near all-time high levels. Such data will keep the Fed on a tightening bias. Although the FOMC is not expected to raise rates when they announce their latest rate decision on Thursday, the December hike is all but a certainty, with the risk that the Fed is more hawkish.
In Europe, the 10 year benchmark yields ended mostly higher with Italian yields moving the most on political concerns.
Times around the world have now adjusted, and that has led to a late day release of NZ employment statistics.
Those employment statistics just blew away expectations with the unemployment rate falling to 3.9% from 4.4%. The employment change for the quarter grew 1.1% versus 0.5% expected. That was strong enough numbers to shake up the strongest currency of the day. The NZD is ending the session as the strongest currency. The JPY is the weakest.
The price action today could be turned upside down with the US election results. Although the conventional wisdom says GOP winning both the House and Senate and the the dollar gets stronger, and Dems taking the House, should lead to a lower dollar, there is no guarantee of anything. So keep an eye on the key levels.
Some levels to eye for the major pairs:
EURUSD: The EURUSD traded above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 1.1393 and 1.1380 respectively. The price is trading at 1.1425. A move below those MAs will be more bearish (dolllar bullish). ON the topside, a close level to get and stay above, would be at the 1.14315 level. That was a floor back in early October, that became more of a ceiling at the end of October/November. The price moved above that level in the early NA session but failed. A move above would be more bullish with a move toward the 1.1455-60 (high from Friday and the 50% of the move down from the October 16 high) increasing the bullish sentiment.
USDJPY: The USDJPY traded to the highest level since October 8th (reached 113.50) on Tuesday and in the process moved above swing levels at 113.32-378 The price at the end of day is trading around that level. If there is dollar selling, falling below that level (and staying below) will be clue #1. The next key clue would be a fall below the 100 hour MA at 113.06. Get - and stay below that level - will look toward the 200 hour MA at 112.78. The price have not trading below the 200 hour MA since October 30th. ON the topside, Get above the 113.50 high for the day, looks toward a topside trend line on the hourly chart at 113.63 area as the next level to get above.
GBPUSD: Today, the GBPUSD moved away (to the upside) from the 100 day MA at 1.3035. The price is trading at 1.3095 at the close. That MA will be a key barometer for the bears. Move below and this bullish break higher, would be a big failure. On the topside, a trend line on the daily comes in at 1.3200. The price is about 100 pips away from that level at day's end, however, it represents a bullish target to get to and through if the recent bullish run is to continue (see post here).
USDCAD: The USDCAD dipped toward the 100 and 200 hour MA into the US close today. Those MAs comes in at 1.3108-11. If the price moves below those two MAs, that would be more bearish. Staying above is more bullish. ON the topside, the 1.3146-483 was home to swing levels going back to late October (see post here). If the price moves above that level, the high from October 31 at 1.31696 will be the next level to get and stay above.
REMEMBER, the election results will be a long drawn out risk event that can easily frustrate both buyers and sellers. The polls close from 6 PM ET out to 1 AM ET.
Even so, the balance of power may not even be known tomorrow as a result of "too close to call" races. Such uncertainty, can lead to up and down markets. And then there is the stock market and Brexit, and the Fed, and China, and rates, and the G20 and Trump's mood, etc. So be careful
