Forex news for NY traders on February 6, 2017
Intro Paragraph Text Here.
- US stocks end the session with modest losses
- Crude oil ends the session lower today
- What's priced in for the RBA for the next year
- Bill Gross: Yields to edge higher but will stay low
- JPY pairs feeling the heat
- The US dollar can't hold a bid like it used to
- Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey shows conditions largely unchanged
- Trump now says he 'strongly supports' NATO
- The ECB isn't the only one seeing the cycle repeating
- USD/JPY back under pressure as risk aversion ramps up
- Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD tests 100 hour MA. Holds.
- Trump doesn't like this story
- A stinker to start the week for European stocks
- Exiting the euro would increase borrowing costs says Bank of France's Villeroy
- How Marine Le Pen's "return to monetary sovereignty" will work
- Draghi: QE limits ensure the ECB avoids monetary financing
- I have nothing to hide says France's Fillon
- Fed labor market conditions index climbed in January
- Why does Draghi repeatedly bottle the structural reform issue in EU parliament?
- Amazon working on technology to cut 90% of grocery store staff
- Draghi repeats the ECB is looking for self-sustained inflation
- Draghi: Underlying inflation pressures remain very subdued
- That feeling when you just miss your target and the market reverses
- The bond market is the Tom Brady of financial markets
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders
In other markets today:
- S&P index ends lower by -0.25%
- Nasdaq falls by -0.10%
- Dow down by -0.14%
- US bond yields are lower. 2 year 1.139%, -4.8 bp. 5 year 1.848%, -6 bp. 10 year 2.411%, -5.3 bp. 30 year 3.051%, -3.8 bp.
- Spot gold is higher by $14.90 or 1.22% as US yields fall
- WTI Crude oil futures are trading down -$0.75 to $53.09
Nothing in the way of economic data in the US session. ECBs Dragh testified in from Parliament but comments were in line with previous comments:
- Support from monetary policy still needed
- Prepared to increase stimulus if needed
- Inflation likely to pick up down the road
Other than that, yields in the US were down a good amount for a Monday with no news. The 2 year is currently down about 4.4 bp, while the 10 year is down about 5 bps. Chatter about less confidence in Trump policies weighed on rates. The fall in yields helped to send gold up about $15 to the highest level since November 11, 2016. The USDJPY was also lower. In fact the JPY was the strongest currency on the day - rising against all the majors. The US dollar was mixed - rising against the CAD, EUR, AUD and GBP, but falling against the JPY, and CHF and near unchanged against the NZD.
The USDJPY broke below the 112.00 level in the NY session. That level is the 38.2% of the move up from the November Election low. Last week traders came in against that level twice and they held support against it on the first test in trading today. The move below took the pair down to 111.64. The 112.00 is now risk for shorts. For a technical look at some of the other JPY pairs CLICK HERE.
The EURUSD for the 2nd day in a row found support against the 1.0706 level. That level (down to 1.0700) will remain a key support level going forward. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish. ON the way off the lows the pair has once again moved above the 200 hour MA at 1.0740. That is close support now. The 100 hour MA at 1.0772 and old swing highs at 1.0774 represent upside resistance in the new trading day. The battle lines are drawn for this pair.
The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged (check out Eamonn's previews HERE and a technical look HERE). Technically the pair held support against the 100 hour MA in the NY session and moved higher off of that support level. That MA comes in at 0.7633. A move below would be more bearish. On the topside, the 0.7700 level remains a key level to get above (and stay above) if this pair is going to push higher. There were two separate highs last week at 0.7695 as traders leaned against the 0.7700 level. The pair is currently trading at 0.7661.
The USDJPY took off to the upside in trading today. I cannot say there was a huge catalyst although oil did fall a bit in trading today (weakens the CAD). Technically, the pair moved above the 100 hour MA and that seemed to start the buying. That did not stop until the pair reached the 200 day MA at 1.31278 (high extended to 1.3134 before reversing lower). The NY afternoon profit taking has taken the price back toward the 200 hour MA at 1.30698. Does that level hold in the new trading day, and we get another run at the 200 day MA? That is what traders will be watching.
Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currencies against each other. The JPY was the strongest. The CAD was the weakest.
