Forex news for NY trading on November 29, 2018
- The US stocks see some selling into the close. Major indices close in the red
- Crude oil tests broken 100 hour MA. Key test for bulls (and bears)
- How bad would car tariffs hurt the EU?
- ECB's Hernandez: Eurozone economy slowing more than expected
- FOMC minutes: Almost all policy makers say rate hike warranted 'fairly soon'
- Dallas Fed October trimmed mean price index +1.6% vs 1.5% prior
- WTI crude rises above $52
- ECB's Villeroy says economic crisis risks have become very dangerous
- Salvini says deficit target "not written in the bible"
- Trump cancels meetings with Turkey and South Korea leaders, will have informal meetings instead
- Office of Trump tax lawyer Edward Burke raided
- European shares see mixed results but mostly higher
- Trump cancels meeting with Putin
- US and China exploring deal to de-escalate tensions - report
- Trump says he is close to doing something on trade with China (but it's not what it seems)
- Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 2.6% vs 2.5% prior
- US October pending home sales -2.6% vs +0.5% m/m expected
- Cohen pleads guilty to lying about Russia real estate deals
- Canada September avg hourly earnings 1.80% y/y vs +2.87% prior
- Canada current account balance for 3Q -10.34B vs. -12.00B expected
- US initial jobless claims 234K versus 220K expected
- US October PCE core inflation +1.8% vs +1.9% expected
- UK consumer confidence falls to lowest since Dec 2017
- German November prelim CPI +2.3% vs +2.4% y/y expected
- The AUD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as NA traders enter for day
- Trump really likes his tariffs
A summary of other markets near the NY close shows:
- Spot gold, plus $2.32 or 0.19% at $1223.55
- WTI crude oil futures up $1.11 at or 2.23% at $51.41. The low price reach $49.41 overnight but rebounded on rumblings that production might be cut going forward
- Bitcoin on Coinbase is moving lower late in the day and is down $110 and $4112.67. The low for the day reach $4077.88, that was just below the 200 hour moving average of $4082.30. A move back below the 200 hour moving average in the new training day would be a step in the bearish direction. The 100 hour moving average is currently at $3953 (and moving higher). Move below both the 200 and 100 hour moving average would be negative for the digital currency. Be aware.
In the US and European stock markets today, the European shares were mostly higher, while US major indices ended the session in the red. In the US, technology and financial shares were lower, while energy and healthcare tended to do better. Below is a snap shot the ranges and % changes of the major indices in Europe and the US.
SEC
On the economic front today, the initial jobless claims rose to the highest levels since May. Overall the number is still historically near low levels, but the recent trend has been more to the upside.
US core PCE was lower than expectations of 1.8% versus 1.9% expected and remains below the Feds target at 2.0% Personal income and spending were higher than expected.
US pending home sales were we can expected and points to the headwinds from higher rates and higher prices. Affordability is tougher for home buyers.
Atlanta Fed GDP estimate for 4Q inched higher to 2.6% from 2.5%
What caught the markets attention was waffling comments from Pres. Trump before leaving for Buenos Aires and the G20 meeting. He said that the US is close to doing something on trade with China, but he did not know if he wanted to do a deal because he likes the deal he has now. That "deal" seems to be tariffs on imports which he sees as a tax revenue for the US government.That may be the case looking at the tariff flows themselves, but the stock market is down since tariffs have been enacted and either business costs or consumer costs (or both). The comment raises the anxiety going into the G20 meeting even more.
As a result, the forex market seemed intent to waffle around today after the sharp fall in the dollar yesterday.
Looking at the strongest and the weakest. the JPY is ending as the strongest. The GBP is the weakest (on Brexit concerns). For the USD, the gains and loses vs the major pairs were saw-toothed. The dollar was stronger vs the GBP, CHF (Switzerland had much weaker than expected GDP today) and NZD. The greenback was weaker vs EUR, JPY and AUD and near unchanged vs the CAD. Moreover, most of the price action in the NY session was confined in a narrow trading range. I think that has to do largely with the uncertainty of the G20 this weekend.
PS. The FOMC released the minutes from their last meeting. The headlines had a little something for both the doves and the hawks. Almost all members see a hike at the next meeting, but many said it might be appropriate at some upcoming meetings to begin putting greater emphasis on evaluating incoming data.
It is Friday before a big G20 meeting, it might be hard for the markets to buck a continuation of an up and down market in the new day. To all the Asia- Pacific traders, wishing you all a great weekend.
