FX news for NY trading on April 26, 2018.
- US stocks close with solid gains.
- USDJPY stays above 100 day MA with BOJ up in the new day
- Video: The Fed isn't only tightening in the US
- Bitcoin down for the 2nd day in a row, but is there a technical reason to buy?
- S&P and Nasdaq making new session highs. CNBC starts 2018 Stock Draft.
- GBPUSD stays in a box. What does it look like?
- EURUSD first look at intraday resistance, stalls the rise
- Audio recap: Dollar still flexing its muscles post ECB
- US treasury auctions $29B of 7 year notes at 2.952%
- Pompeo has enough votes in Senate for Sec. of State confirmation
- ECB source: Policymakers keen not to upset market expectations for end QE this year
- USDCHF trades to new year highs/breaks trend line
- Goldman Sachs: Does not expect policy rate increase until 2nd half of 2019
- European stocks end the session with gains.
- EU Barnier: Repeats UK transition is not certain until a Brexit deal is reached
- EURUSD continues tumble lower
- Goldman Sachs raises Q1 GDP estimate to 2.2% from 1.9% prior
- Kansas City Fed April manufacturing activity index 26 vs 17 expected
- USDCAD bounces after stall at key support . Trading at new highs
- WH Economic advisor Kudlow: I have high hopes for China talks
- Post Draghi. EURUSD retraces after 100 day MA stalled the rise
- Meanwhile...The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate remains unchanged at 2.0% for 1Q
- Barclay raises GDP estimate for 1Q to 1.8% from 1.5%
- More Draghi press conference. Winding down toward the end.
- ECB Constancio: Unconventional policy could be used again
- Draghi Q&A highlights after ECB keeps rates unchanged
- Draghi opening statement: Data points toward moderation of expansion
- US March prelim durable goods orders +2.6% vs +1.6% expected
- US wholesale inventories 0.5% vs 0.7% estimate
- US initial employment claims 209K vs. 230K expected
- US March advance goods trade balance -$68.0B vs $-75.0B expected
- The JPY is the strongest while the CHF is the weakest as the market awaits Draghi.
A snapshot of other markets near the close shows:
- Spot gold fell $5.90 or -0.45% at $1317.28
- WTI crude oil rose $0.15 or 0.22% at $68.20
- Bitcoin is unchanges at $9079 after holding support at the 200 hour MA (at $8787 currently). The digital currency is trading just above the 100 hour MA at $9057. For a technical look at Bitcoin see earlier post "Bitcoin down for the 2nd day in a row, but is there a technical reason to buy?"
US stocks close with solid gains on the back of better earnings. After the close, stocks are getting another boost as Amazon, Intel, Microsoft beat estimates.
- S&P closed up 1.04%
- Nasdaq closed up 1.64%
- Dow closed up 0.99%
The European stocks also closed higher but the gains were more subdued (CLICK HERE)
In the US debt market today, yields went lower with the 10 year moving back below 3%. The treasuries auction of 7 year notes had strong demand at the relatively higher rates.
In economic news in the NY session, data was overall better than expected.
- Durable goods beat expectations at 2.6% vs 1.6% expected
- Weekly jobless claims came in at a low 209K vs 230K
- Advanced goods trade deficit was lower than expected. It was a relief to have a lower trade deficit in the US
- Inventories were higher but less than expectations.
The data helped to boost estimates for 1Q GDP which will be released tomorrow. Barclays, Goldman raised their estimates by 0.3% each. Although higher, 1Q GDP growth is expected to come in weaker than the Trump administration would have hoped (especially give tax cuts). The first cut of US GDP will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET with the estimate at 2.0%.
The big news was the ECB statement and the Draghi presser. The statement was about as expected. As far as Draghi's presser, he once again talked positively - ""Growth remains solid and broad-based" - but then sprinkled cautious comments in ("All countries reported some moderation of growth and loss of momentum"). He stressed keeping a "steady hand, with patience, prudence and persistance" and stressed that the ECB did not discuss what they would do next as it is still dependent on what happens in the economy.
The price of the EURUSD initially moved higher on the comments, but the price stalled just ahead of the 100 day MA at 1.2212. Holding below that key MA, and the comment ambiguity (and overall dollar buying today) pushed the pair back down for the rest of the day. The EURUSD is closing right around the 1.21000 level. The 50% of the move up from the November low comes in 1.20538. The 200 day MA comes in at 1.2004.
The BOJ meets in the new day. For a technical look at the key levels click here. The USDJPY non-trended in a 40 pip range.
The USDCHF broke to new highs since December 27th and accelerated the upside trend. The USDCHF is now up 8 straight days.
The GBPUSD stayed in a box today. What does that look like? CLICK HERE. It will break out of the box at some point. So knowing the extremes is important. The price is below the 100 hour MA at 1.3857. That will be close topside resistance in the new day.
Tomorrow in the NY session will focus on GDP and the follow through from the impressive earnings. Does the combination, keep the bid in the US dollar?
Below is the snapshot of the winners and losers.
