Forex news for North American trading on March 10, 2017:
- February 2017 US non-farm payrolls 235k vs 190k exp
- February 2017 US non-farm payrolls 235k vs 190k exp
- Article 50 trigger could come as soon as Tuesday - report
- NY Fed growth estimate ticks higher
- ECB said to have discussed whether rates can rise before the end of QE
- Commerce Sec. Ross: US may issue 90-day NAFTA pullout notice in next couple weeks
- Ross: Japan will be high on US priority list for trade agreements
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 617 vs 609 prior
- UK NIESR GDP estimate out early 0.6% vs 0.6% exp q/q
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: AUD longs and GBP shorts jump
- US Feb budget deficit $192B compared to $193B in Feb 2016
Markets:
- Gold up $3.56 to $1204
- WTI crude down 69-cents to $48.49
- US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 2.57%
- S&P 500 up 7.7 points to 2372
- EUR leads, USD lags
It's definitely eyebrow-raising to see the US dollar at the bottom of the daily currency pile despite a stellar jobs report and drop in the unemployment rate. Right from the moment of release, the market decided to focus on wage growth and even ignored an upward revision to the prior.
USD/JPY had been high-flying this week before the report but buckled afterwards in a quick fall to 115.10 from 115.45. It briefly bounced but a second wave of selling along with sales into the options cut knocked it down to 114.80. In addition, the Ross comments triggered yen buying. The momentum continued lower from there and the pair finished at the lows of the day at 114.60. The drop raises question markets about what had looked like a breakout.
EUR/USD has been the star this week and that continued on Friday as it broke above last weeks high and continued to a one-month high. A 40 pip rally on the jobs headlines was consolidated but buying into the London fix and into the US afternoon extended the move more than 100 pips on the day. Some late selling brought the pair narrowly below the mid-February low to finish at 1.0673.
Cable was dragged down by continued EUR/GBP selling as Article 50 draws ever-closer. The pair tried the downside but bids at 1.2130 held and there was a 60 pip jump. It was a chop to either side of the range a few times from there before settling at 1.2150.
The Canadian jobs report was stellar with the best full time hiring since 2006. Immediately, USD/CAD fell to 1.3420 from 1.3505 but the momentum stalled in part due to a reversal in oil. Crude had touched $50.00 but slowly sank to finish at $48.38.
The Australian dollar started at 0.7520 and made several attempts at 0.7560 and was beaten back every time. It finishes at 0.7539.
We're keeping a close eye on EUR/CHF as well. The pair rallied nearly a full cent and almost touched 1.08 before finishing at 1.0787. The SNB decision is March 16 and it's an underrated risk event next week.
