Forex news for NY trading on April 11, 2018
Intro Paragraph Text Here.
- Stocks end with declines but activity relatively quiet
- Barclays has an analogy for the three kids of cryptocurrency buyers
- US crude oil futures settles at $66.82. Moves and closes above the 2018 high.
- Audio recap: Gold trying to make a break for it
- A third US national security advisor has resigned since Bolton took over
- FOMC Minutes: All members expected 12-month inflation to rise in coming months
- No US airstrikes against Syria expected today. Trump still undecided - report
- Even the greatest trade can be destroyed by horrible luck
- John Paulson made one of the greatest financial bets of all time. Now he owes $1.5 billion in taxes
- Bitcoin peeks back above its 100/200 hour MAs
- Gold is up $25 and threatening the 2018 high
- European stocks head lower in trading today. Yields tick down.
- Oil breaks the January high to rise to the best level since December 2014
- Two loud blasts in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- US EIA weekly oil inventories +3306K vs -1250K expected
- The progression of the USDCAD "breaks" keeps the sellers in charge. Can it continue?
- Could Trump be bluffing on Syria missile strike?
- Trump attacks Mueller and Rosenstein and says they caused bad blood with Russia
- Right now Paul Ryan is telling colleagues he's quitting - report
- US March real average weekly earnings yy 0.9% vs 0.6% prev
- US March CPI -0.1% m/m vs 0.0% expected
- House majority leader Paul Ryan to announce soon he won't run in November - report
- The JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the ups and downs continue
In other markets today the snapshot near the end of the day is showing:
- Spot gold is trading up $12.83 at $1352.28. It was up as much as $25 but backed off into the close.
- WTI crude oil closed sharply higher on mideast tension. The contract is trading up $1.29 or 1.97% at $66.80
- Bitcoin had another quiet day. It trades up $63 ro $6904. For a technical look at the biggest of the digital currency, CLICK HERE
US stocks end lower:
- S&P fell -14.68 points or -0.55%
- Nasdaq fell -25.27 points or -0.36%
- Dow fell -218 points or -0.90%
The US yields were lower but off the lowest levels for the day:
- 2 year 2.304%, down -0.4 bps
- 5 year 2.6113%, down -1.3 bps
- 10 year 2.777%, down -2.3 bps
- 30 year 2.99%, down -3.1 bps
Today, US CPI came in lower than expected on a MoM basis (-0.1% vs 0.0% expected) but because the value was down more a year ago, the YoY numbers came in higher vs last month at 2.4% vs 2.2% last month. It was the one year high.
The issue with the number is that although at a high, it is largely a fait accompli that inflation rises this year from last year - simply from lower values from last year, dropping out this year.
Nevertheless, later in the day when the FOMC meeting minutes were released, the Fed did acknowledge that
- inflation was unanimously expected to rise in the next few months,
- that 1Q growth softness was likely to be transitory
- Outlook warranting a steeper rate path
- risks from prolonged above trend growth
- Sees no big growth impact from steel/ aluminum tariffs
- Sees significant fiscal policy growth boost over the next few years
However, they also thought:
- gradual rate hikes still appropriate (although they may extend longer than expected)
- Wage growth was moderate
- Saw risks from trade war
Overall, the market saw the headlines as being more hawkish off the headlines but when the EURUSD and the USDJPY hit technical targets (see post here), the dollar rise fizzled and the prices moved back toward whence it was prior to the minutes.
In other news today:
- Saudi Arabia reported they intercepted ballistic missiles from Yemen aimed at Riyadh
- Pres. Trump tweeted of incoming missiles to Syria are coming.
That news certainly caught the attention of gold buyers. It was up $25 at the peak but came off into the close. Yields in US debt were also lower on the flight into the safety of those issues.
The JPY caught a flight to safety bid. It was the strongest currency of the day. Although the CHF ended as the weakest currency today. The USD ended in the middle with mixed results. It was higher vs the CHF, AUD and NZD, but down vs the JPY, CAD (the loonie was helped by technicals and the price of oil), and EUR. The GBPUSD was near unchanged on the day.
