Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 28 October 2015
- NAB's outlook for the RBA after today's weak CPI: On hold
- HSBC changes view on RBA - expect a cut next week
- UBS say to buy gold on dips - "hedge against tail risks attractive"
- Australia - ANZ interest rate strategists: Weak CPI "a game changer"
- MNI say BOJ easing unlikely this week
- UBS cuts China 2016 GDP forecast - more detail
- Australia Q3 CPI comes in lower than expected - responses
- China - Westpac/MNI Consumer Sentiment for October: 109.7 (prior 118.2). This is a record low
- UBS cuts growth forecast for China 2016 to 6.2%
- PBOC sets yuan reference rate for today at 6.3536
- Japan PM Abe adviser Shibayama:Would 'not be strange' for BOJ to ease Friday
- Previews of the FOMC on Wednesday
- Australia Q3 CPI: +0.5% q/q (0.7% expected)
- The Fed "have bungled the message" on interest rate hike ... need to get it fixed
- Japan data - Retail sales for September: +0.7% m/m (vs. expected +1.1%)
- FOMC ... "Yellen has recently faced a rebellion at the central bank"
- Trade ideas thread for Wednesday 28 October 2015
- Previews of the RBNZ announcement due Thursday (NZ morning)
- Westpac's 3 scenarios for the RBNZ monetary policy meeting
- More from ECB's Cœuré, on why the ECB may adjust the deposit rate
- BoK's Lee: Possibility of a hard landing in Chinese economy is low
- ECB's Cœuré: Economic recovery remains subdued
- MORE-Goldman Sachs says El Nino could force RBA to cut interest rates
- ICYMI: China's railway freight volume dropped in first three quarters of 2015
- Japan press: BOJ poised to push back its estimate for reaching 2% inflation
- API crude oil inventories rise 4.1 million barrels
- Apple earnings highlights - EPS $1.96 vs $1.88 est
The day started off with a small jump in oil prices on the back of the American Petroleum Institute reporting a gain in inventory ... but over the course of the session the price jump has been given back and it now trades around session lows.
ECB executive board member Benoît Cœuré
was the next cab off the rank. he was speaking in Mexico City, where he basically set off down the same path as Draghi last week. The EUR weakened slightly on his dovish talk but the range over the course of the session was tiny and finish (as of writing) pretty much where we started. EUR, GBP, CHF were not where the action was at all today during the session.
Japanese retail sales data came in low, under both expectations and the prior reading, The response of the yen was a slight weakening (USD/JPY to above 120.50 briefly), but it didn't last (USD/JPY back down toward 120.25 and it is now mid range on the session). The weak data did kindle chatter of the potential for more BOJ easing on Friday, but it died out quickly, as did interest.
AUD and NZD were much more active. The catalyst for the move lower in both (but lower for AUD than NZD) was the Australian Q3 CPI coming in well below expectations. AUd/USD was marked lower immediately and it has struggled to raise itself from the canvas. Its on session lows as I update. AUD/NZD has retraced its fall somewhat but is net lower on the day as we head into the RBNZ policy announcement on Thursday morning (NZ time). Previews of the RBNZ here.
The CPI data from Australia was below expectations for all 3 measures (headline trimmed mean and weighted medians) and has been described as a 'game changer' for the RBA. Indeed, both market pricing and many views have flipped to an expected Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut at the next meeting (Tuesday November 3). Not all analysts are in that camp (responses from analysts here, then more, and more, and more).
Regional equities:
- Shanghai -0.60%
- Nikkei +0.61%
- HK -0.58%
- ASX -0.17%
Still to come:
- Previews of the FOMC on Wednesday
