Forex news for Asia trading Monday 4 May 2015
Monday:
- New Zealand Treasury: Expects Q1 was low point in annual inflation cycle
- HSBC China manufacturing PMI: 48.9 (vs. 49.4 expected)
- Australia data - Building approvals +2.8% m/m & ANZ Job Advertisements +2.3% m/m
- Market pricing an RBA cut at 80% probability
- China Securities Journal: China GDP may grow about 6.8% in Q2 - MORE
- New Zealand - ANZ Commodity Price index for April: -7.4% (prior +4.6%)
- Australia - TD/MI Inflation Gauge for April: +0.3% m/m (+0.4% prior)
- RBA To Cut This Week; Sell AUD/USD - Barclays
- Ongoing investigation into RBA pre-announcement trading ... so far nothing suss
- UK election coming up May 7 ... Hung parliament - what happens next?
- RBA decision leaks ... its time to stop blaming the HFTs and algos
Weekend:
- UK on holiday tomorrow but normal ForexLive service will be maintained
- EU Commission to raise its forecast for 2015 French GDP growth
- Japan's growing influence gives China cause for concern
- Warren Buffett - stocks prices will look high if interest rates get back to normal levels
- UK election May 7 - latest polls
- Tsunami warnings lifted after quake off Japan
- European Commission Vice Pres. Sefcovic - Expects Turkmenistan natural gas by 2019
- Nikkei: Toyota, Honda, to shift some production back to Japan
- 4 reasons US dollar will rebound - BNP Paribas
- BOJ Governor Kuroda: Timing slightly delayed reaching inflation target
- Three lessons from Warren Buffett for forex traders
- Australian press: IMF says Australian living standards are under threat
- Fed's Williams: June rate hike would require 'good' improvement in labor market, inflation
Minor moves across most currencies today. EUR/JPY saw say a good-size fall (for this timezone, especially on a Japanese holiday) with a net lower EUR/USD and USD/JPY both contributing.
Cable was a little stronger on the session - its promising a volatile week in the lead oup to the election and beyond.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD had heavy sessions, but neither managed to pierce Friday (US) lows. A benign (private measure of) inflation reinforced the notion that the RBA has scope to cut rates tomorrow (decision due at Tuesday 5 May at 0430GMT), should they go down that path (which is looking increasingly likely). Building approvals, though, came in stronger than expected, with most of the welcome strength in multi-unit development approvals. This data point saw the AUD tic up a few points, but it fell hard (to the session low) on the release for the HSBC final manufacturing PMI for April, which missed on expectations and on the flash read.
Gold showed a good bit of strength today, the metal was well bid on decent volumes, gaining nearly $10 from late Friday NY prices. Oil was softer on the session, but is up from its earlier lows as I update.
Still to come:
It's a holiday in the UK, but 'Iron" Mike Paterson will be on line for ForexLive traders as normal.
