Forex news for Asia trading Monday 7 November 2016
- BOJ September meeting minutes - recap
- More from Asakawa: If we see speculative movements in FX, may have to act
- Oil - earthquake news - M5.3, near Cushing OK
- Japan official says facing risks like Brexit, Chinese slowdown
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.7725 (Friday at 6.7514 )
- Goldman Sachs on the trade for the USD into the election
- Australia - ANZ job ads for October: +1.0% m/m (prior -0.3%)
- UK manufacturers growing wary of investment in wake of Brexit vote
- Japan wages data for September, Labor Cash Earnings +0.2% y/y (in line with expected)
- BOJ Sep. meeting minutes out now
- Some of the late arrivals to the party now ... gold down, oil up
- Australia data: October Construction PMI: 45.9 (prior 51.4)
- Anatomy of an opening FX gap: USD/JPY
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 7 November 2016
- BlackRock says Australia could lose AAA rating next month
- New Zealand revises Q3 CPI higher
- Trump responds on Clinton News - says 'rigged system'
- Monday FX price update - on the move here following Clinton news
- USD/JPY climbs in thin trading after FBI clears Hillary Clinton
- FBI clears Hillary Clinton on classified emails
- Monday morning FX - 7 November 2016 - foreign exchange prices, early indications
Weekend
- Credit Agricole: US elections cast a long shadow; what's the trade?
- The final countdown: Trading the US election - BAML
- New WSJ/NBC poll shows Clinton ahead but lead slashed
- Three tips for day traders
- Huge turnout in early Florida voting shows more Democrats voting
- UK's Hunt says it's "highly unlikely" that parliament would prevent pressing the Article 50 trigger
- US Election 2016: Trump bundled off stage in a security alert
- UK's May says she intends to carry out Brexit "in full"
- UK press: Opposition party will try to block Brexit talks if no single mkt access
- Juncker warns European industry not to cut own Brexit deals
- Video: The minute-by-minute guide to trading US election night
- Revisiting Tom Basso: How Important is Your Entry in Forex Trading? - Part 1
- What would a 5% decline in the stock market look like?
- US Election: Clinton and Trump clash over the economy
- The High Court Brexit ruling fallout continues
A pretty much unchanged start for the FX week in very early trading was soon shaken up in a big way by the FBI announcement that cleared Hillary Clinton. USD/JPY was the biggest mover, it gained steadily from circa 103.40 to above 104 & 104.25 before any meaningful retracement. When the pull back came it was shallow, to only a little under 104 before making a new high above 104.40. All this happened in an about an hour, from 8.30pm GMT. (see this post for a chart of early trading that may not be captured in many data/broker services).
Meanwhile, EUR/USD gave away ground, dropping under 1.1100 and extending to under 1.1050 before recovering back over 1.1100.
The USD move stronger was also reflected in USD/CHF (to a high just under 0.9790), and GBP/USD (which dipped to around 1.2450). Retracements for these two pairs halted around 0.9725 and 1.2490 respectively.
AUD and NZD did not have extended moves. Both popped higher initially on the move back to risk (AUD/USD high just above 0.7710 and NZD/USD circa 0.7360) but did not sustain and are now little changed for the session.
The Mexican peso was the biggest winner, up 3+%.
A few hours later saw the opening of Globex, with ES futures up 25+ points. Gold dropped upon its open, down under 1288 at one stage (briefly) before it recovered some ground (it hasn't been back much above 1295 since). Oil opened higher and traded higher still.
News flow pretty much halted after the Clinton news. We did get minor data points from Australia and Japan, and also minutes of the Bank of Japan September meeting, but the focus is on US political developments ahead of the election Tuesday (US time).
We also got news of M5 earthquake near Cushing, Oklahoma (a huge oil storage facility area). There are no reports of damage to the facility.
The People's Bank of China weakened the yuan (against the USD) at today's mid-point setting. Also in China:
- Coking coal +10% to limit
- Rebar +4% to its highest since 2014
- Iron ore futures up only slightly
Regional equities:
- Nikkei +1.53%
- Shanghai +0.26%
- HK +0.46%
- ASX +1.32%
Still to come ... China foreign reserves (October)
- expected $3132.5bn
- prior $3166.4bn
- Watch out for a bigger fall in reserves than expected
- I don't have a specific time for this release but I expect it out of China this afternoon (Beijing time)
