Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 7 March 2019
- More oil … Trump administration offshore drilling plan due 'in coming weeks': official
- Analyst says India's (world's biggest) election will provide a boost to oil
- David Rosenberg on "the canary in the coal mine in the ADP data"
- More on EU officials pessimistic about breakthrough in Brexit talks
- Huawei sues the US, says it should not be blocked from selling equipment
- Reuters poll - analysts nominate target for cable on a 'no deal' Brexit
- AUD ticking a little higher, China comments doing no harm
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7110 (vs. yesterday at 6.7053)
- Chinese Finance Minister says Tax cuts are top fiscal priority in 2019
- UBS forecast RBA rate cuts (25bps in July and August this year)
- Australia Retail Sales for January: 0.1% m/m (expected 0.3%)
- Australia Trade Balance for January: AUD 4549m (expected AUD 2750m)
- US President Trump says he might block networks from holding election debates
- Reuters polling shows the USD is expected to fall 4% (and EUR/USD up 5%)
- UK press: UK Cabinet expects Brexit deal defeat next week
- FedEx CEO sees strong US economy
- JPM Asset Management on reasons to be bullish AUD
- Morgan Stanley still bearish AUD, says data in contrast with RBA outlook
- HSBC on the RBA, still expect the next rate move to be up
- TD on the ECB rumour - positive for the EUR
- Brexit - EU officials are pessimistic on reaching a breakthrough
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 7 March 2019
- Australia Construction PMI (Feb): 43.8 (prior 43.1)
- Huge email password leak threatens Swiss National Bank among others
Currencies carried on in their relatively subdued ranges here in Asia today. Cable has been a rock, its sitting near its session highs as I update, after not much movement. The news we got (Brexit related, you'd never have guessed, right?) was not positive; it appears UK/EU talks are not making any progress and optimism is absent. Meanwhile, the looming vote in the UK parliament looks set to be another loss for the government. But, yeah, like I said GBP has done OK on the day here. Let's now see what the next few hours bring.
USD/JPY has done a limited range lap. From 111.70 and thereabouts to lows under 111.60 and back to 70. EUR/USD hasn't done much more, confined to just over 10 point range.
We did get more data from Australia today, kicking off Q1 with January trade balance and retail sales. The trade balance was a big beat for the surplus, on improved exports and imports (a positive sign for the economy). Retail sales, though, another disappointing miss on estimates. The market kneejerk was a drop on the sales numbers, but this was brief and since then AUD/USD has ticked up toward (but not to) 0.7050. Kiwi, too, bid for the session; lows circa 0.6765 and highs just above 0.6790.
The European Central Bank meeting is tonight, previews: European Central Bank meet today - previews in one place
Still to come:
