Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 6 December 2016
- Morgan Stanley's potential scenarios & EUR/USD response for trading the ECB meeting
- NZD took a tumble
- Australia - RBA announces rates left ON HOLD
- The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017
- Japan govt to issue extra deficit-covering bonds - more detail
- Westpac cuts its Q3 GDP forecast to negative - more detail
- Australia - Westpac has cut its Q3 GDP forecast to negative
- US Treasury's Sheets: China rebalancing and deleveraging needed to ensure growth
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.8575 (vs. yesterday at 6.8870)
- Japan govt to issue deficit-covering bonds (around Y1.9trln) to offset revenue shortfall
- Australia - BoP Current Account Balance for Q3: $A -11.4bn (expected $A -13.5bn)
- UK data - BRC sales like-for-like for November: 0.6% y/y (expected 1.7%, prior 1.7%)
- Japan Oct. Labor Cash Earnings: 0.1% y/y (expected +0.2%, prior +0.0%)
- Heads up for NZ dollar traders - dairy auction due London time Tuesday
- I'm gonna repeat this - USD/yuan is NOT anywhere near 7.4
- US politics - Electoral College voter says he won't vote for Trump (nor Clinton)
- Australia data - ANZ Weekly consumer confidence: 118.6 (prior 115.4)
- Here's the thing about today's RBA meeting - they'll then be on holiday until February!
- Australia - RBA meeting today - what to expect (spoiler .... nothing)
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 6 December 2016
- Fed's Bullard: December interest rate increases looks reasonable
- NZ data - ANZ Truckometer (Nov.) +4.0% m/m (prior -0.4%)
- Can someone tell me how I get a dealing price from Google on USD/CNY (they're WAY off)
- IMF: Greece debt-relief measures insufficient - still a very long way away from agreement
A subdued session for the yen, with a 113.50-80 range (thereabouts) only. EUR and CHF were even more subdued, both very little change on today's Asia session. Cable was a little more active, creeping up to add on around 30 points from early lows.
Gold crept up a little to test toward overnight highs, while oil was a few cents to the better.
AUnd and NZD were a little more interesting. We got more 'partial' GDP data from Australia today, showing net exports will subtract 0.2 of a point from Q3 GDP (q/q) & government consumption expenditure (public demand) will subtract 0.7 of a point. The Australian dollar lost ground, dipping from around 0.7480 pre-data to circa 0.7450.
We get the Australian Q3 GDP data tomorrow (Wednesday 7 December 2016 at 0030GMT), the median consensus dropped to negative today, the Bloomberg survey now at -0.1% q/q and +2.2% y/y. It wasn't all doom and gloom, though, the terms of trade was reported, coming in at +4.4% against expected at +3.5% (for Q3), which should contribute to a better performance for Q4 GDP (timeline for that data - due in March 2017).
After the data the RBA announcement followed a few hours later. This was the final meeting before holidays, the next meeting is February 7. As unanimously expected, the Bank left the cash rate unchanged, and there wasn't too much change in the accompanying statement either. AUD barely budged. Curiously, just prior to the Australian central bank's announcement the NZD took a tumble, a chunky sell and stops to the downside hit exacerbating the move in the thinner liquidity.
Perhaps, though, the most interesting part of the session was early (late NY afternoon and into the twilight zone) when a data glitch caused Google and some others to quote USD/CNY above 7.4. Huge if true, but it wasn't (of course). Despite urgings from ForexLive to ignore the obvious data error ...
- Can someone tell me how I get a dealing price from Google on USD/CNY (they're WAY off)
- I'm gonna repeat this - USD/yuan is NOT anywhere near 7.4
... Twitter went a little bit silly on a 'surprise' PBOC devaluation.
But, no. The data error was corrected and (forex) life went back to normal. In fact, the People's Bank of China revalued the CNY higher today (not surprising following overnight USD weakening). More at those links, and it even made it into the Financial Times (may be gated):
Regional equities:
- Nikkei +0.44%
- Shanghai +0.08%
- HK +0.82%
- ASX +0.67%
Still to come:
- Heads up for NZ dollar traders - dairy auction due London time Tuesday