Forex news for Asia trading Friday 4 November 2016
- What we need about now is "5 things to watch in the October NFP"
- Westpac on today's RBA Statement - the "three key themes"
- Goldman Sachs near-term targets for GBP after the UK Court Decision
- ANZ on Australian data today - retail sales warning flag about household spending
- USD/JPY continues its choppy session
- China finance ministry: Growth of fiscal revenue to help curb local debt risks
- Report: Oil companies will probably cut investment spending $370bn this year & next
- Reuters RBNZ poll - 30 of 33 surveyed see RBNZ cutting cash rate next week
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.7514 (vs. yesterday at 6.7491)
- Japan Nikkei PMI for October: Services 50.5 (prior 48.2), Composite 51.3 (48.9)
- Australia - Retail sales for September, +0.6% m/m (expected +0.4%)
- Australia: RBA 'Statement on Monetary Policy' out now
- Video FX - The finer points of trading forex on US election night
- Is China's economy going to be Japan 2.0? Goldman Sachs thinks so.
- ICYMI ... There's a US election next week, here's when we will know the result
- October NFP report - what Goldman Sachs is expecting
- ANZ on oil - the risks, OPEC developments, and price forecast
- ECB's Coeuré: "Public debt has been seen as both too safe and too risky"
- BoE's Cuncliffe speech "Challenges for financial markets"
- Trade ideas thread - Friday 4 November 2016
We had a choppy session for USD/JPY ahead of the nonfarm payroll report due in the US morning today. After a quiet Tokyo open (Japan back from a holiday yesterday) USD/JPY moved higher to 103.20, and then just as quickly fell back to hit late-US lows under 102.90 ... before jumping again to around 103.10. News flow was light (virtually non-existent), pre-NFP jitters perhaps contributing to the moves.
EUR, CHF and NZD all lost a few points against the USD; again, no news of much relevance crossing during the session.
For Australia, we got some data and central banking activity, September (and Q3) retail sales (September higher, but the result mainly due to increased prices of food, while retail volumes were down (annual real retail sales growth is at the slowest annual growth in five years in Q3). Meanwhile, we also got this quarter's Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy, which while leaving forecasts for inflation and GDP growth unchanged and painting a more upbeat opinion on China still highlighted enough points of caution from the Bank for a slightly dovish bias to peep through. Something to watch ahead.
Gold dribbled a few dollars lower. Oil didn't do much at all.
Regional equities:
- Nikkei -1.40%
- Shanghai +0.01%
- HK -0.03%
- ASX -0.89%
Still to come: NFP report!
- What we need about now is "5 things to watch in the October NFP"
- October NFP report - what Goldman Sachs is expecting
More:
- Moody's on China implementing deleveraging guidelines - a credit positive
- And, congratulations if you've read down this far. Here's a bit extra ... In response to today RBA SoMP, Citi economists now expect no more rate cuts from the Bank (Citi were previously forecasting a cut in 2017). They say today's economic and inflation forecasts in the Statement are consistent with no further easing. Citi do hedge somewhat, saying downside risks could still see further easing next year.
