ForexLive Asia FX news: Waiting on the RBA

Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 4 April 2017

Australia - MS thinks APRA intervention could suck billions out of consumer economy
Morgan Stanley 's outlook for the RBA today, and AUD year end forecast
Enough on Australia, now for Japan, surplus has it on watch for currency manipulation
NZ raises its forecasts for primary industry exports
Australia (February) Trade Balance: $A 3574 mln (expected $A1900 mln)
US healthcare - Meadows expects to see legislative proposed changes text within 24 hours
BOJ Kuroda - too early to talk about an exit strategy
USD/JPY & EUR/JPY orders
EUR/USD orderboard
AUD and NZD orderboards
More from the BOJ Tankan (price expectations survey ... unchanged!)
US VP Pence to meet with House Freedom Caucus tonight to talk health care
Australia data - ANZ Weekly consumer confidence: 111.1 (prior 113.8)
BOJ Governor Kuroda to speak in the Diet today (from 0930 local time)
Oil - Platts forecasting rise in US offshore production as new fields added
CBA on the RBA today (quick preview) & AUD intra-day view
WPAC on the RBA today (quick preview)
NZIER - New Zealand business confidence drop in Q1
More on South Africa ratings (S&P downgrade, Moody's review)
AUD - RBA announcement due 0430GMT - on hold expected - more previews
Forexlive Americas forex wrap: JPY pairs wilt as US yields fall.
Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 4 April 2017
AUD - RBA announcement due 0430GMT - on hold expected
Moody's place South Africa Baa2 rating on review for downgrade
More from Fed's Harker: Could begin trimming bond holdings late '17, early '18
Economic data due from Asia today - RBA policy announcement

Overnight developments played out further during the Asian session today ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia April monetary policy meeting awaited (still to come, due at 0430GMT).

The upcoming Xi-Trump meeting later this week is a focus, concerns on how trade issues will play out.

There were declines in Asian stocks, the Nikkei underperforming as the yen held its overnight strength and extended further during Tokyo, USD/JPY under 110.50 at one stage weighing on the stock index. BOJ moves to trim JGB purchases slightly - the Bank announced on Friday it was reducing purchases in the one- to three-year and three- to five-year JGBs it buys in April, while purchase amounts of longer-dated JGBs to remain unchanged - is still a topic of chatter in the markets here, & yen 'safe-haven' status after the Russian bombings overnight continued also continued to play out here. Weak data from manufacturing in the US overnight also a factor also.

EUR, CHF and GBP, meanwhile, are all little changed against the big dollar but lower against the muscle-flexing yen.

And so to Australia ahead of the RBA ... we got a record monthly trade surplus announced today, better exports contributing but a huge plunge in m/m imports was the main driver. The drop in imports needs to be read with a surge in the prior month, but on balance the two months taken together show falling imports, suggestive of an economy that is not sucking in imports as a strong economy is likely to do ... a sign of underlying soft domestic demand. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD jumped on the surplus announcement, though the range was small only. Prior to the trade data we got consumer sentiment (weekly), which is not usually much of an immediate market focus ... but today's poor result adds to recent declines and brings the index under its long run average. Another sign of weakness.

NZD was on the weak side after a good early rally, AUD/NZD buying contributing here.

Regional equities: