Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Monday 3 September 2018 31 August 2018
- Australian GDP data due this week likely got a boost today. Does it matter for AUD?
- Asia forex intervention on Monday September 3
- New Zealand Treasury Monthly Economic Indicators (no mention of grumpflation)
- PBOC dep gov says China to provide a friendlier investment environment
- China Caixin / Markit Manufacturing PMI for August: 50.6 (expected 50.7)
- Australia Retail Sales for July: 0.0% m/m (expected 0.3%)
- Australia Company inventories for Q2: 0.6% q/q (vs. expected 0.2%)
- Australia ANZ job ads for August: -0.6% m/m (prior +1.5%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8347 (vs. Friday at 6.8246 )
- The NZ economy is in the grip of 'grumpflation '
- Australia, Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge for August: 0.1% m/m (prior was 0.1%)
- More on French President Macron: Putin dreams about "dismantling the European Union"
- Japan Nikkei / Markit Manufacturing PMI for August, final: 52.5 (vs. prior 52.3)
- Westpac fair value AUD model - "A$ finally prints ‘cheap’ "
- Australian CoreLogic House Price index for August: -0.4% m/m (previous –0.6%)
- Japan data - Q2 capex +12.8% y/y (vs. expected +6.5%)
- "Britain is seeking ways to avoid US sanctions on Iran, The Times understands."
- Brexit secretary Dominic Raab expects a deal (but plans for a no deal exit)
- Australia - CBA Manufacturing PMI for August: 53.2 (prior was 52.4)
- New Zealand Terms of Trade Index for Q2: +0.6% q/q(expected +1%)
- Barclays trade of the week is long USD/CAD
- Australia - AIG Performance of Manufacturing index (August): 56.7 (prior was 52.0)
- Chinese President Xi remarks on Sunday: determination on reforms
- This on GBP & Brexit: "Barnier comments prove currency’s sensitivity to headlines"
- Weekend Italy: Fin min says yield spread to narrow as budget details are unveiled
- Weekend FT: BoE Gov Carney has indicated that he is willing to serve more of his term
- Weekend FT: German business leaders raise alarm over Brexit progress
- Weekend: UK PM May - no 2nd Brexit referendum & won't surrender to Brussels
- Trade ideas thread for Monday September 3
- Weekend Trump tweets: no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal
- Welcome to a new week and month in the forex market: Early price indications
Weekend
- Brexit: Barnier says he strongly opposes May's proposals
- What's on tap for the economic week ahead
- Four Divorces and a Funeral
- Candlestick patterns that signal that a trend run is on
The daily hot or not FX ratings had GBP in the loser bin Monday in Asia. Weekend Brexit comments from EU negotiator Michel Barnier sent GBP lower in opening trade. This is the same dude that sent sterling soaring with his comments last week. The man is a friend to FX (volatility)! More details in his comments in the bullets above. There was plenty more in the Brexit category and plenty more to come in the months ahead. GBP/USD dropped under 1.29 briefly in the very early, terrible liquidity time slot before retracing 50% or so of its wobble.
USD/JPY is another mover on the session, from highs early circa 111.15 its come back under 111 and is around 110.90 as I post. We got solid capex data ouf Japan today, a big beat (see bullets above). If inflation wasn't so far from target you'd have to think this is another sign to the BOJ to pull back on their 'powerful' easing policy and is thus a yen positive at the margin.
USD/CHF is a little higher on the day (from late Friday trade levels), but only barely so. Little in it.
EUR, AUD are basically flat while NZD/USD is just a few points weaker. There was loads of Australian data today (see bullets above) and some from NZ.
USD/CAD is up just a little after some CAD-negative tweets from US President Trump over the weekend ('no political necessity to keep Canada in the new Nafta deal'). Like the EU's Barnier, The Don is a friend to FX volatility.
A heads up in case you are unaware, Monday is a US holiday.
Still to come:
- Still to come from Asia later in the session - BOJ Governor Kuroda speaking
- UK August PMIs data kicks off Monday - preview
- Forex option expiry for Monday 3 September 2018
- RBA meet Tuesday - preview for what is an assured result
- AUD traders - RBA September meeting is Tuesday - preview
As I said on Friday last week, gonna repeat it today ... The back end of the week could be volatile. President Trump has said he wants to move ahead with tariffs on China (the next 200bn worth) as soon as the public-comment period concludes. Comments close September 6, Thursday.
