The 1994 movie starring Hugh Grant, "Four Weddings and a Funeral" was a big hit. In 2018 - and this weekend - we seem to be heading toward "Four Divorces and a Funeral" instead.
Senator John McCain will be put to rest today after a week of mourning, reflection of the good from a life.
Unfortunately, some chose to criticize in death. He was not a perfect man. Who is?
Meanwhile, Pres. Trump is agitated and I have to wonder what the funeral for Senator John McCain might add to his agitation this weekend and week.
What we know:
- US and Canada could not come to an agreement, and despite the willingness to continue the dialogue on Wednesday, they move farther apart as more trust was lost this week. I have to think that with all the rhetoric, the feeling is the decision was built in the cake,
- Trump is going for the gusto on the EU as well and straining that relationship by not giving an inch. Trump called the EU worse than China on trade.
- There are $200B of China tariffs ready to be enacted as early as next week and will likely lead to equal response (the "spat" is turning to an all out "war").
- The leak to the Toronto Sun by Bloomberg - at least according to Trump (of course we will never know) - puts the dagger deeper in the relationship between the press and the the President. That marriage is long over and it remains an important/daily talking point for him (which I find sad).
Four divorces in progress...
Then there is the death and funeral of Senator John McCain.
It is no secret the two men were not friends and despite McCain's grave illness, it did not stop Trump from continue hitting him when he was down. On campaign stumping events for others, and during other speeches while on the road, he has referenced the sick Senator in a disparaging way, to the delight of his political base. Sad.
He also went as far as ordering the US flags back to full staff on Monday at the White House (they were not raised at the Capitol) - the minimum amount of time on the death of a Congressman or Senator - before lowering them after bipartisan opposition on the same day (oh, how that must have bothered him).
Let's face it, Trump could care less about respect for the sick or dead, especially if they slighted him in the past. That is not fake or phony, but it is what we know.
So in response, who does McCain have speak at his personally planned service in Arizona on Thursday?
- Larry Fitzgerald, a black football player. Black football players are a forever enemy of Pres. Trump for their kneeling during the National Anthem. He would rather see football disappear in it's entirety from the US economy even though it is part of the economy in many ways.
- A Mexican immigrant friend, Tommy Espinoza, who McCain asked to be his co-campaign chair even though he was a Democrat
- Former VP Joe Biden, a Democrat and Obama's VP. Biden may still be a Democratic candidate in 2020.
Who did McCain tap on the shoulder for eulogies over the weekend in Washington:
- President Obama. Obama or Hillary? Flip a coin as to the name that invokes more hatred from Trump.
- President George W. Bush. Trump tore apart Jeb Bush during the 2016 election and publicly disgraced a "royal family" of America.
You have to think, that like Biden's eulogy on Thursday, there will be a lot of reference to the "politics of yesterday" and the danger of today and tomorrow. They will invoke the bipartisan approach of McCain. His character which is not a political thing, but a human thing. In essence, they will be McCain's final voice, in his death and that is a voice that grates at the core of Pres. Trump.
What we know is Pres. Trump does not want to lose anything and to lose to a foe who has died, has gotta really get under his skin.
So when it is all over, who knows the tweets we might read over the weekend. I hope there are none. Who knows if Pres. Trump may himself raises the flag over the White House (or his country house) as soon as the interment is over (and make sure all are there to see it). It will happen at some point today and that is fine. I would do it at midnight, but whatever.
Then getting back to business,
- The NAFTA plan is to make a deal with Mexico, squeeze Canada to the point that they may walk (for the time being). I can hear the blame of the Dems and GOPs on Capital Hill for not agreeing to a bipartisan agreement with Mexico, favoring a full NAFTA agreement. It is somewhat ironic that one deal Trump made on trade is with the country he riled against the most during the election.
- Squeeze the EU, they are worse than China after all. Use the fight against the "enemy" to rile the political base.
- $200B in tarrifs for China is a fait accompli. They are right behind Europe as the worlds worst.
- The press....if Trump can't silence opposing views (or influence algorithms on Google), he can just use the "fake news" term.
I have to think that Pres. Trump feels there is something better in full out, dish throwing, round house swinging divorce (although I give Chrystia Freeland kudos for keeping her anger in yesterday. That is what the delay after the meeting was for), versus preserving a... yes... imperfect marriage(s), but one that endures because successful ones in the long run, can't have ALL the chips.
So get ready for bra's and underwear and a host of other goods prices to go higher around the world. Expect the potential for higher unemployment here and there, and hope the risks don't tip the scales too far over for global equities and end up killing the fatted calf, because it, like home prices going into 2008 is helping the US economy which is the strongest. The chips are pushed in and "All in" has been called.
So far the markets have gotten used to it. Stocks in the US had a great month. They did not have a great month in Canada and Europe and growth does not just come from one, but all.
It may work out....I don't know....that's why I have a very strong eye on the charts. You know me. I can't predict the future or even connect all the dots of all the stuff that makes a price go higher. There is no perfect formula, but just an evaluation of risk - for me at least.
But to those that do know it all, it is a big bet and meanwhile, the divorce proceedings continue.
Four divorces and a funeral.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the 1994 movie "Four Weddings a Funeral", the hit song was titled "Love is all around".
In the 2018, sequel "Four Divorces and a Funeral", I feel it in my fingers. I feel it in my toes... but love is NOT around me....
I don't know about you, but I am an old sap for love and peace and respect and hard work, and some give and take, and checks and balances and imperfection and even sharing the chips.
What do you think?
RIP Senator McCain.
