There is a good amount of data due from Australia this week, partials for Q1 GDP
ANZ say though these are not as important for moving the currency as are possible announcements around the future of the income subsidies. I suspect there will be other factors even more important, which you can mainly summarise as those impacting risk sentiment (US-China tiff for example).
ANZ on AUD, bearish for the week and month ahead:
- Improving news and some suggestions that the COVID-19 pandemic may have reached its peak have seen the AUD outperform.
- Its medium-term prospects are likelyto hinge on how fast activity can resume and how well economies cope with instances of the virus resurgence.
Meanwhile CBA are also bearish for the week ahead for AUD.
- US-China phase1 trade deal is at risk due to rising tensions between the two countries
- if either were to pull out of the deal, USD would sharply appreciate and CNH, AUD and NZD would fall - CBA due highlight though that a collapse of the deal in this way is not their base case
- But do note the escalation in strain over the weekend with China's Foreign Minister saying some Americans were risking a new cold war
(you can find the forgn min comments at this GT report, here)
