The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50% to 3.75% at its latest meeting but several members dissented regarding the dovish bias that's in the statement. The market is pricing in 20 basis points in rate hikes by year end as it weighs the inflation shock from the Iran war and improving US economic data.
This is the first Beige Book since April when it said overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts reported little change and two Districts reported slight to modest declines.
Today's edition said economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace for ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while one District reported a slight decline and one reported no change. Philadelphia outright declined and San Francisco flatlined.
The report highlights a worsening K-shaped economy:
Higher-income households remained resilient and less sensitive to price increase, while middle-income households were described as “squeezing more life out of every dollar before deciding to spend it,” and low-income consumers showed greater financial strain
Some other highlights:
- Employment showed little to no change in 11 of 12 districts
- Prices increased at a moderate-to-strong pace
- Business outlooks were reported to have little change in anticipated growth
Data centers are doing extraordinary lifting — driving manufacturing orders, commercial construction, electrical and metals demand, even Manhattan office leasing via AI tenants. Cleveland said it plainly: data center strength is masking weakness in other business lines. Take that engine out and the manufacturing "modest-to-strong in nine districts" headline looks a lot thinner.
An interesting sidebar is that Chicago's retail contacts noted that refunds from the recent Supreme Court ruling are unlikely to translate into lower shelf prices. So that disinflationary offset doesn't show up for consumers.
