Final thoughts
My best guess is that we get a 25 bps hike but with a dovish statement. If that's the case, I think the trade is to sell the initial pop on the hike, which may come close to 0.7000.
The OIS market is pricing in a 60% chance of a hike but those numbers have been bouncing around all over the place.
Here's a final look at the NZD/USD chart:
