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Recapping - NZD rises after CPI beat as markets price higher odds of May RBNZ rate hike

The inflation beat is clearly hawkish for rates and supportive for NZD in the near term. However, weakening business confidence and rising geopolitical risks complicate the outlook, suggesting the RBNZ may remain cautious despite market pricing. Expect continued volatility across NZD and front-end yields.

Eamonn Sheridan

33 minutes ago

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Eamonn Sheridan

33 minutes ago

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Central Banks

nzd cpi q1 2026 New Zealand 21 April 2026

Central Banks

NZ CPI holds at 3.1% as electricity and petrol drive inflation above RBNZ target band

NZ inflation holds above target as energy and administered costs keep price pressures sticky.

Eamonn Sheridan

4 hours ago

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Eamonn Sheridan

4 hours ago

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Central Banks

Central Banks

ANZ turns hawkish on RBNZ as inflation risks build. RBNZ hike in July, September, October

This is NZD-supportive at the margin, particularly on rate differentials. A more front-loaded hiking cycle lifts short-end yields and supports the currency, especially against lower-yielding peers. However, the backdrop matters: if hikes are driven by negative supply shocks (energy) rather than strong growth, the NZD upside may be limited. Rates markets are likely to reprice toward a steeper near-term path, while equities could face headwinds from tighter financial conditions.

Eamonn Sheridan

12/04/2026 | 23:40 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

12/04/2026 | 23:40 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

RBNZ says prior cuts still support growth, sees upside if conflict eases

RBNZ’s comments reinforce a hold bias with conditional upside to growth if geopolitics ease. NZD remains sensitive to oil and risk sentiment, while rate expectations stay dependent on whether supply-driven inflation proves persistent.

Eamonn Sheridan

09/04/2026 | 00:36 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

09/04/2026 | 00:36 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

RBNZ sees 2026 growth if ceasefire holds, flags inflation still above target

RBNZ’s stance reinforces a cautious hold bias, balancing improving growth signals against elevated inflation. NZD may stay sensitive to oil and risk sentiment, while rate expectations remain conditional on whether energy-driven inflation proves temporary.

Eamonn Sheridan

08/04/2026 | 21:59 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

08/04/2026 | 21:59 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

RBNZ expands media outreach after hold decision amid uncertain outlook - Breman schedule

While not a direct policy move, the expanded communication schedule increases the likelihood of incremental signal refinement in the days following the decision, meaning markets, particularly rates and FX,may remain sensitive to tone shifts or clarifications from Governor Breman, with communication itself becoming a key channel for shaping expectations in an uncertain environment.

Eamonn Sheridan

08/04/2026 | 02:48 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

08/04/2026 | 02:48 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves its cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected

Reserve Bank of New Zealand 08 April 2026 policy decision

Eamonn Sheridan

08/04/2026 | 02:01 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

08/04/2026 | 02:01 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

RBNZ to hold. Oil shock lifts inflation outlook but weak growth tempers response (preview)

RBNZ expected to hold OCR at 2.25% as oil shock lifts inflation above 4% while growth weakens. ASB sees policy patience for now but flags risks of earlier hikes if inflation proves persistent or expectations shift.

Eamonn Sheridan

07/04/2026 | 21:27 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

07/04/2026 | 21:27 GMT

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Central Banks

nzd update rbnz expected hold 08 April 2026

Central Banks

RBNZ set to hold as it looks through oil shock, watches inflation persistence risks

The expected hold from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand should land as modestly dovish relative to current market pricing, particularly if policymakers push back on expectations for multiple rate hikes this year, which could weigh slightly on the NZD and pull front-end yields lower as traders reassess the policy path; at the same time, a measured “look-through” approach to the energy-driven inflation spike may support equities at the margin by easing fears of an abrupt tightening in financial conditions, reinforcing a broader global theme of central banks tolerating short-term supply shocks while remaining alert to persistence risks.

Eamonn Sheridan

07/04/2026 | 20:42 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

07/04/2026 | 20:42 GMT

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News

Economic & event calendar Asia, April 8, 2026: Trump deadline ahead. RBNZ hold expected.

Asian Economic Calendar: Key events and consensus expectations for 08 April 2026

Eamonn Sheridan

07/04/2026 | 20:07 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

07/04/2026 | 20:07 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

Newsquawk Week in Focus: Trump's Iran deadline, US CPI, PCE, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ and OPEC+

Next week's highlights include the OPEC+ meeting, Trump's Iran Deadline, US ISM Services PMI, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ, RBI, US PCE, BoK, Chinese CPI, Canadian Jobs and US CPI. This also reviews events from the week just gone.

Newsquawk Analysis

05/04/2026 | 12:50 GMT

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Newsquawk Analysis

05/04/2026 | 12:50 GMT

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Central Banks

nzd rbnz conway westpac gdp forecast 25 March 2026

Central Banks

RBNZ’s Conway warns on purchasing power as Iran shock clouds NZ outlook, GDP 4cast slashed

Near-term bearish NZD bias as growth risks rise and policy remains constrained. Rates likely on hold despite weaker activity, with inflation uncertainty limiting easing expectations and increasing volatility in rate pricing.

Eamonn Sheridan

25/03/2026 | 02:06 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

25/03/2026 | 02:06 GMT

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Central Banks

Central Banks

RBNZ’s Breman flags near-term inflation rise, warns on second-round risks

Neutral-to-hawkish. Reinforces that near-term inflation alone won’t trigger tightening, but any shift in inflation expectations or second-round effects would increase the likelihood of rate hikes, supporting NZD on persistent inflation signals.

Eamonn Sheridan

23/03/2026 | 23:11 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

23/03/2026 | 23:11 GMT

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Central Banks

nzd Reserve Bank of New Zealand 24 March 2026

Central Banks

RBNZ’s Breman signals rate hike risk if energy shock drives persistent inflation

Hawkish conditionality. Reinforces upside risk to NZ rates if energy-driven inflation persists, supporting NZD on a sustained shock scenario, while a temporary spike keeps policy steady and growth concerns in focus.

Eamonn Sheridan

23/03/2026 | 20:51 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

23/03/2026 | 20:51 GMT

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Central Banks

RBNZ to expand communication, adding briefings after every policy decision.

More frequent RBNZ communication is likely to heighten market sensitivity around decisions, with post-meeting commentary reducing uncertainty and playing a larger role in shaping rate expectations and currency moves.

Eamonn Sheridan

19/03/2026 | 22:05 GMT

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Eamonn Sheridan

19/03/2026 | 22:05 GMT

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(Recap) NZD rose after a stronger CPI print lifted expectations for a May RBNZ hike, while bond yields jumped and business confidence weakened, highlighting a growing tension between inflation pressures and slowing growth.

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Recapping - NZD rises after CPI beat as markets price higher odds of May RBNZ rate hike

NZ CPI holds at 3.1% as electricity and petrol drive inflation above RBNZ target band

ANZ turns hawkish on RBNZ as inflation risks build. RBNZ hike in July, September, October

RBNZ says prior cuts still support growth, sees upside if conflict eases

RBNZ sees 2026 growth if ceasefire holds, flags inflation still above target

RBNZ expands media outreach after hold decision amid uncertain outlook - Breman schedule

Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves its cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, as expected

RBNZ to hold. Oil shock lifts inflation outlook but weak growth tempers response (preview)

RBNZ set to hold as it looks through oil shock, watches inflation persistence risks

Economic & event calendar Asia, April 8, 2026: Trump deadline ahead. RBNZ hold expected.

Newsquawk Week in Focus: Trump's Iran deadline, US CPI, PCE, FOMC Minutes, RBNZ and OPEC+

RBNZ’s Conway warns on purchasing power as Iran shock clouds NZ outlook, GDP 4cast slashed

RBNZ’s Breman flags near-term inflation rise, warns on second-round risks

RBNZ’s Breman signals rate hike risk if energy shock drives persistent inflation

RBNZ to expand communication, adding briefings after every policy decision.

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