The USD Is higher vs the major currencies to kickstart the new trading day. The biggest gains are vs the AUD (+0.64%) and the NZD (+0.49%). The greenback is up 0.30% vs the EUR, 0.17% vs the JPY and 0.22% vs the GBP. In the video above, I talk about the technicals in play for those 3 major currency pairs to kickstart the North American session.
Recall, yesterday, President Trump announced a delay in a planned U.S. military strike on Iran after requests from key Middle East allies including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, who pushed for more time to pursue negotiations and avoid a broader regional conflict.
The delay followed reports that Iran had submitted a response aimed at ending the conflict, although major differences reportedly remain on nuclear and security issues. Trump made clear the pause is conditional, stressing that U.S. military forces remain ready to launch a large-scale strike quickly if talks fail to produce an acceptable agreement.
The shifting headlines led to volatile market reactions. Oil prices initially pulled back on hopes of de-escalation, while risk sentiment improved modestly in stocks. However, traders remain cautious given the uncertainty surrounding negotiations and the continued threat of renewed military action.
All is not calm as Iranian comments warn against opening "new fronts against them with new tools and methods".
Oil prices this morning show July crude is trading down $0.60 at $103.75 with the low at $102.12 and the high at $104.18.
In other commodities this morning:
- Gold is down -$24 or -0.50% at $4542
- Silver is down -$1.67 or -2.20% at $75.95
- Bitcoin is trading -$257 or -0.34% at 76610.
US stocks are trading lower in pre-market tradin with the Dow implying a decline of -97 points, the S&P is down -27 points and the Nadaq is down -200 points (futures implied).
Yields in the US are trading lower with the:
- 2 year down -1.8 basis points at 4.0717
- 5 year down -1.7 basis points at 4.263%
- 10 year down -1.2 basis points at 4.611%
- 30 year unchanged at 5.147%.
Today’s economic calendar is highlighted by Canada’s CPI inflation report and U.S. housing data.
In Canada, headline CPI for April is expected at 0.7% m/m versus -0.4% prior, while the annual rate is seen rising to 3.1% y/y from 2.4% prior. The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures are also expected to remain elevated, with CPI Median seen at 2.2% vs 2.3% prior and CPI Trim at 2.1% vs 2.2% prior.
In the U.S., traders will also watch housing-related data. Pending Home Sales for April are expected at 1.0% m/m versus 1.5% prior, while the prior reading for the Pending Home Sales Index stood at 73.7.
Today’s Fed speak features Governor Waller and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, with both expected to reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation.
Waller, a current voter, has recently stressed the need to monitor inflation expectations closely as geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices risk keeping inflation elevated. While acknowledging some labor market softening, he has leaned toward keeping rates steady unless inflation improves further.
Paulson, a 2026 voter, has warned that commodity shocks tied to global conflicts could feed inflation more persistently. She has emphasized the importance of Fed credibility on inflation while remaining data dependent, and has also pointed to AI-driven productivity gains as a possible longer-term offset to price pressures.
