Trading in a narrow range between close support and close resistance
The USDCHF surged yesterday on the back of the positive weekend news on China and North Korea. In the process, the pair did crack above the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart (currently at 0.9868). It also moved above a trend line at the level.
Since then, however, the price has moved back below the trend line and tried to move below the 100 bar MA as well. At the same time, the price has also moved higher, but has tracked below the rising trend line (and stalled at the 61.8% retracement level at 0.98914 as well).
So resistance is holding above (trend line and 61.8%) and support is also stalling falls (at 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart). Moreover, the trading range is woefully small at 25 pips. The 22 day average is 70 pips.
The pair is unsure of the next direction, and needs a shove. I would guess that the next shove will likely see more follow through in the direction of the break.
How far does it go?
On the downside, the 50% midpoint since June 19 comes in at 0.9853 and below that the pair will look to take back broken levels (like June 21 and June 27 highs).
On the topside, there is more open road above the trend line the 61.8%. Just look for that momentum into the open road....
PS As I type the MA is being broken below and new lows are being made in the USDCHF. The sellers are pushing....
