Ups and downs continue in the pair
The USDCAD traded below its 100 hour moving average on Tuesday and in trading yesterday found sellers against that moving average at the session high. That tilted the bias marginally to the downside, but the moves lower dipped below the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below) and the 38.2% retracement at 1.27684. However, there was not a lot of momentum below those levels.
In trading today, the pair once again tried to extend below its 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 1.27856, but momentum failed again. The price moved higher and back above its 100 hour moving average (blue line). The last 6 hourly bars has been able to stay above that moving average level at 1.27994 (also near 1.2800). Stay above tilt the bias more to the upside.
On the topside, the next target to get to and through comes in at 1.2835 area. That level was a ceiling going back to Tuesday intraday. Yes the price ended up breaking higher on the same day (stolen near highs from January 29). However, sellers reestablished resistance against the level after the break higher failed (on Tuesday). Also near the level today is the underside of a broken trend line.
A move above 1.2835 would open up the door for a run toward the highs from this week and last week between 1.2869 and 1.2880.
Summary: Overall, the last few days has tried to move lower and extend below targets like the 200 hour moving average and 38.2% retracement. Those breaks are needed to tilt the bias more in the direction of the sellers. However, despite best efforts in a number bars trading below the 200 hour moving average, downside momentum could not be established. The move back above the 100 hour moving average – and staying above – tilt the bias more in favor of the buyers. Like the downside, there is still work to do and the price has been chopping up and down over the last 6 or so trading days. As a result there can be some reluctance to move higher and move lower. Nevertheless the buyers have the edge at the moment.
