4 days of moves above that have failed
The USDCAD has seen the price of the pair rise above the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) for 4 consecutive days. Each day saw the price try to move higher, only to fail. Yesterday, the price moved above the 100 hour moving average at 1.2775. The high price reached 1.27889 before rotating back below the MA level and closing lower.
Today, the price high technically peaked just above the MA by about a pip and there have been three separate tests of the MA line. However,there was little in the way of momentum. In fact, sellers - having enough of the failed breaks perhaps - did a good job of leaning and keeping a lid on any upside momentum. That is a step in the bearish direction and the price is currently trading at session lows at 1.2734.
On the downside, the sellers are approaching the swing lows over the last 3 trading days. Yesterday the low price came in at 1.27192. The low price on Friday reach just below that level at 1.27188. The low price from last week came in at 1.2706 on Thursday. That is the lowest level going back to April 20, 2018.
Needless to say getting below each of those target levels would increase the bearish bias and lead to more downside probing. Holding support still leaves the 100 hour moving average as a key resistance.
PS the low to high trading range for the USDCAD is only 37 pips. The average of the last 22 days of 69 pips. So there is room to roam (and extend the trading range). Can the technical levels be broken?
