With the Kiwi on its way towards the April double top, will the RNBZ pull a cut out of the bag?
The forecasts for today are fairly mixed.
Barclays and Morgan Stanley say a cut is coming either today (Barclays), or if not today they'll signal August (MS). Citi says they'll sit on their hands. Westpac follows MS with the June hold, August cut. HSBC and ANZ are on hold for today.
The kiwi doesn't look worried about what may come tonight and that means the risk is that we get a cut that wasn't expected.
NZDUSD daily chart
The April double top is the main tech level close at hand. It's quite a short term level so I wouldn't trust it entirely so close to the current price. We then have trendline resistance almost bang on the 0.71 big figure, and then pretty much empty air to the 38.2 fib at 0.7204. That level is backed up by the 100 wma at 0.7202. If we are to see technical resistance between 0.7100 and 0.7200, then around the 0.7170/80 area is where I'd expect it. That was the area that held as support, and then resistance in the initial drop through 0.7200 back in Feb/Mar 2015.
Support is looking strongest down towards the 55 wma and 200 dam 0.6694 to 0.6665 and further towards the rising trendline. Closer to the current price, 0.6900 down to 0.6880/85 could be a place we find a bottom on a surprise cut.
There's some good mileage between some good looking technical levels so there's a chance the RBNZ decision will bring opportunities for shorts or longs.
Adam will be your hostess through the decision at 21.00 GMT and the presser two hours after that.
