Pair is higher after Asian session rally, but finds a stall point near the 50% retracement
The GBPUSD rallied from the get-go in the Asian session and in the process continued the trend away from the 100 hour MA (blue line). Buyers were technically encouraged by the move above a topside trend line at 1.2374 early in the session (the price did not look back) and then conquered the 200 hour MA (green line). The price has remained above the 200 hour MA since breaking. All is positive technically.
Although higher, there has been some stall near the 50% retracement (like the EURUSD -see post here). That 50% comes in at 1.24466. The high did reach 1.24538, but sellers/profit takers have preferred to lean against the area in the London/European session. It will take a move above (and hourly close above) to give buyers added confidence. Traders would look toward the 61.8% at 1.24938 on a break higher.
On the downside, the close support is the broken 200 hour MA at 1.24077. The 38.2% of the move down from the April 14 high comes in 1.23994 (call it 1.2400). Stay above 1.2400, and the buyers are still holding the stronger hand. Move below and those buyers may look to fold and live to trade another hand.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the move from the December high to the March low has the 50% retracement at 1.24611. The high today reached 1.24538. If the price does extend back above the 50% of the near term April range, will still have to contend with the 50% midpoint on the daily chart. Keep that level in mind on more upside momentum too.
SUMMARY. The rally for the GBPUSD has run away from some lower technical levels but the 50% on the hourly (at 1.24446) and daily chart (at 1.2461) have given the buyers some cause to pause (the high reached 1.24538). Nevertheless, intraday, the broken 200 hour MA and 38.2% remain risk for longs looking for more upside potential (from 1.23994 to 1.24077). Stay above keeps the buyers more in control.
