No change is expected...
The RBA will announce no change policy when they announce at 10:30 PM ET/0330 GMT.
CLICK here for the last "Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision".
Technically, the price action since the Feb 7th decision took the price:
- Down to 0.7605 on the rate decision day
- Then on a slow ascent up to the high at 0.7704 on Feb 23rd.
- The last 7 days has seen the price rotate to a low of 0.7542 (on Friday).
That move lower last week, took the price below the 0.7635 floor area (see hourly chart above). It also fell below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour char (currently at 0.76259) and the 0.7607 level. Looking at the 4-hour chart that level was near highs from the weeks of Jan 24 and 31. It then became a floor for pair during the Feb 3rd week.
Today, the high stalled at the 0.7608 level. We trade at 0.7582 currently.
So on the topside through the decision, the picture is saying:
- 0.7607 and
- 0.7637
as the next upside targets.
On the downside, there is a key support target on the downside defined by the:
- 200 day MA at 0.7525
- 100 day MA at 0.7518, and
- A swing area from the mid Jan to the end of Jan period between 0.7510 and 0.7527 (see yellow area in the chart above)
I would expect a test of this area to be a tough nut to crack on a test. A closer support target would be the 0.7550 level (lows from Feb 1 and Feb 2. We did break below that level on Friday but the breaks were quickly reversed.
