100 day MA at 1.3098.. and so is the 100 week MA too. Key level traders.
The GBPUSD ended the session yesterday testing the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart AND the 50% retracement of the move down from the October 31 high. That area comes in at 1.3179. The high reached 1.3175 (see end of day technical post on the GBPUSD HERE). That was a key level for the pair into the new trading day, and when the price fell back below the 200 hour MA (green line), the move lower was back on.
What now?
The pair has since pushed below the 100 hour MA at 1.31161, and the yellow area which has a number of swing levels in the 1.31096-1.31254 area. That area will be close resistance now for traders. Getting, and staying below the 100 day MA will be the challenge for the shorts. The pair has dipped a few pips below the level (to a low of 1.3090 so far). Mike speaks to 500 M options expiring at that level today as a possible influence. Technically, traders will want to see more time below the 100 day MA and if the 1.3090 level is key up to option expiration, we can add that to the other hurdle to get to and through too.
So sellers....watch the "yellow swing area" for resistance (bullish/bearish intraday clues). Stay below bearish. In addition get below the 100 day MA and stay below for more bearish bias.
Dip buyers you need to hope for the opposite. This is a good level to buy with the 100 day MA as the support to lean against. If going higher from here (and continuing ups and downs seen lately), you will want to see 1.3125 breached. That should be the catalyst to turn the beat around (once again).
PS. Taking a broad look from the weekly chart, the 100 week MA on the GBPUSD is currently at 1.3098. Sound familiar? With the 100 day MA and the 100 week MA at the same level, it increases that levels importance for the day/week. Be aware. We can go either way from this area.
