EURUSD falls 40 pips and dips below MAs...bounces modestly.
The EURUSD took a 40 pip run to the downside after the high for the day stalled near the 1.21641 area.
.jpg)
Remember from yesterday's post, the 1.21534 to 1.21641 area is home to a swing low floor from January, March and April 2018, before breaking lower and not returning to that level until this month (see chart above).
Yesterday, the price moved above that area, but stalled just ahead of the ceiling high from the December 4 high at 1.2177 (see the hourly chart below). The high price today reached 1.21656 just above the high of the old swing low floor region up to 1.21641, and backed off quickly.
The run lower moved down toward the 100 and 200 hour MAs at the 1.3126 area. The low moved below those trend lines to 1.31198 but despite the break, has seen a modest bounce. Can the sellers keep the pressure on and push through that level today with more momentum? For now the pair is staying between the 1.21534 to 1.21614 level above and the 100/200 hour MA below.
Working in the favor of an extension at some point (outside of the technical levels in play today), is that the range for the day remains modest at 46 pips. The 22 day average is 69 pips so there is room to roam. Is the break going to be to the downside? If so, the 120949 to 1.2100 is the next target, and below that the 38.2% at 1.20788.
On the topside, if the price can extend above the 1.21641 level, getting above the December ceiling at 1.2177 (and high for the year) would open the door for further upside probing (and new highs going back to April 2018).
