Above 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart
The EURUSD has moved sharply higher as flows head out of the dollar and into other currencies (like the EUR) which has been relatively weak. Hopes for a global reopening is spurring on the flows.
Technically, the pair ended the day yesterday between the 100 hour moving average (currently at 1.08148) and the 200 hour moving average (at 1.08363). The price dipped below the 100 hour moving average in the early European session only to fail on the next hourly bar. The sellers quickly turned to buyers and on the break of the 200 hour moving average above (green line at 1.08363), the price rocketed higher.
On the way, the 50% retracement of the move down from the April 15 high was broken at 1.08576, as well as the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart. The price has not been above that moving average since April 15. The moving average down to the 50% retracement is now close risk for traders today. Stay above is more bullish, but move below muddies the bullish waters for the bulls.
On the topside, the high price for the day did stall against the 61.8% retracement of the same move down from the April 15 high. That comes in at 1.08885. Above that is a swing area between 108.96 and 109.04. The 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart is also in that area at 1.09047. The price has not been above that moving average since April 1. Getting above that cluster of resistance would open the door for further upside potential for the pair.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the EURUSD did move above a topside trend line at 1.0872, and stalled right around the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 27 high to the April low. That level comes in at 1.08869. A close above each of those levels would open the door for further upside momentum.
