The last 4-days has seen a sideways movement in the EURJPY.
The EURJPY reached a peak of 126.648 last Thursday and a slightly higher high on Friday at 126.673. The double top stalled the rally that has seen the price trend to the upside since November 19.
The high fell just short of the August high at 126.745 (and was also short of the September 1 high of 127.068).
The last 4 days has seen the price consolidated/correct lower.
Today, the price is modestly higher, but the highs for the day stalled just under the 100 hour moving average (blue line) currently at 126.253. The inability to extend above that moving average, gives the sellers some ammunition for the downside. We currently trade in a swing area between 126.018 and 126.083. Get below the 126.00 level and there could be additional downside momentum.
If sellers can keep a lid on the pair against the 100 hour moving average, the downward sloping a lower channel trendline cuts across at 125.73 (and moving lower). That would be the next target. Below that is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the November 27 swing low. That level comes in at 125.612. The rising 200 hour moving average at 125.555 (green line in the chart above) is also a downside target on further corrective pressure. Get below the 200 hour moving average would be the 1st breach since November 23.
Conversely, if support can hold and the price can move back above the 100 hour moving average (blue line), the buyers remain firmly in control. I would expect a retest of the double top at 126.673 with a break opening the door for further upside momentum.
For now however given the price action, the intraday and short-term bias is little more favored for a downside corrective move in the near term.
