RBNZ’s Hawkesby signals more cuts ahead, data-dependent pace

  • Hawkesby said upcoming meetings are live, OCR is projected to trough near 2.5%, and the pace of cuts will depend on data.
hawkesby
  • RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said the next two meetings are live, with no decisions yet made.

  • He said the OCR projection troughs around 2.5%, consistent with further cuts.

  • Whether cuts come faster or slower will depend on the data.

  • He noted the bank has never had a 4–2 vote before.

  • Hawkesby said there is a range of views around the risks to the outlook.

  • RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said he hopes to appoint a new MPC member for the October meeting.

  • The RBNZ said its view on neutral has not changed, but the OCR is no longer restrictive.

  • Hawkesby said the fiscal outlook shows government spending falling, which helps with inflation.

  • He added that Q2 economic activity was considerably weaker than expected.

  • The RBNZ said house prices are not rising as expected.

  • It noted that if businesses and consumers remain cautious, that might prompt more policy action.

  • The bank said the past 250bp of easing will support growth.

  • Comfortable with the fall in the NZD

Here is a quick rundown of the statement and the minutes that I posted ealier.

And for those who like to nerd out at the numbers like me, here is a post highlighting the key changes in the May and August policy reports.

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