- Trump: My deal will be better than JCPOA
- Trump: I'm winning the war by a lot
- Trump says ceasefire will end Wednesday, won't open Strait until deal is signed
- Warsh to tell Congress he's committed to ensuring monetary policy is strictly independent
- Canada's Q1 Business Outlook Survey: sentiment bounces back, then the Middle East happened
- US-Iran talks are planned for Wednesday - report
- Iran positively reviewing participation in peace talks, no final decision taken - report
- Iran reportedly willing to participate in second round of talks this week
- Canada March CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.6% expected
Markets:
- Gold down $15 to $4813
- US 10-year yields up 1.2 bps to 4.256%
- WTI crude oil up $4.85 to $86.68
- CHF leads, JPY lags
- S&P 500 down 0.2%
The only thing you can say about today's US session was that the situation in Iran didn't get worse.
The market was looking for some answers around a few questions and I'm not sure there was any progress. The main issues are:
- Is Iran actually attending negotiations? (this seems to be drifting towards 'yes' but they're grandstanding, maybe for the domestic audience.
- Is JD Vance going for the US? (Trump said he was already in the air but that turned out to be untrue but it looks like he's going on Tuesday)
- Will there be a deal? (Trump fired off several tweetstorms with all kinds of rhetoric but he did hint that the deal was on track -- and better than the JCPOA)
- Will Hormuz open before talks? (This seems to be a sticking point at the moment and if both sides halted their blockade before the talks, that would be a positive sign)
So we continue to wait but the market wasn't particularly bothered outside of near-dated oil, which recouped about half of Friday's drop.
On Tuesday we get US retail sales and the confirmation hearing for Warsh so that should be a welcome distraction but Iran is going to continue to dominate until we get a deal.
